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The impact of contact patterns of sexual networks on Zika virus spread: A case study in Costa Rica
Applied Mathematics and Computation ( IF 4 ) Pub Date : 2021-03-01 , DOI: 10.1016/j.amc.2020.125765
Xiao-Feng Luo , Zhen Jin , Daihai He , Li Li

Abstract The impact of Zika virus (ZIKV) is a global public health issue and its severity is ongoing. It is primarily transmitted via mosquitoes and sexual contacts. Sexual transmission experiences a longer period and strongly depends on the topological structure of sexual networks. However, relatively little work has been done to explore the characteristics of ZIKV infection in sexual networks, and further control ZIKV by changing contact patterns between individuals. In this paper, using the settings of Costa Rica as a case study, we developed a heterosexual network-based model, to study the effect of changing the degree heterogeneity by the measure of deleting the sexual contacts of individuals with small number but large degree in the sexually active places at different time, on ZIKV spread. We obtained a threshold time, which is later than the peak time of ZIKV infected cases. If applied prior to the threshold time, the measure will inhibit ZIKV infection and lower the final size; surprisingly if past the threshold time, the measure will boost ZIKV infection and increase the final size. In addition, our model yielded higher cumulative infection among females, which is in line with observations. Our results provide some guidelines for preventing and controlling mosquito-human and sexual transmissions against ZIKV, particularly for countries with a high rate of sexually transmitted infections.

中文翻译:

性网络接触模式对寨卡病毒传播的影响:哥斯达黎加的案例研究

摘要 寨卡病毒 (ZIKV) 的影响是一个全球性的公共卫生问题,其严重性仍在持续。它主要通过蚊子和性接触传播。性传播经历的时间更长,强烈依赖于性网络的拓扑结构。然而,在性网络中探索 ZIKV 感染的特征,并通过改变个体之间的接触模式进一步控制 ZIKV 的工作相对较少。本文以哥斯达黎加的环境为例,我们开发了一个基于异性恋网络的模型,研究通过删除数量少但程度大的个体的性接触的措施改变程度异质性的效果。不同时间的性活跃场所,对 ZIKV 的传播。我们得到了一个阈值时间,晚于 ZIKV 感染病例的高峰时间。如果在阈值时间之前应用,该措施将抑制 ZIKV 感染并降低最终大小;令人惊讶的是,如果超过阈值时间,该措施将增加 ZIKV 感染并增加最终大小。此外,我们的模型在女性中产生了更高的累积感染,这与观察结果一致。我们的研究结果为预防和控制针对 ZIKV 的蚊人传播和性传播提供了一些指导,特别是对于性传播感染率高的国家。我们的模型在女性中产生了更高的累积感染,这与观察结果一致。我们的研究结果为预防和控制针对 ZIKV 的蚊人传播和性传播提供了一些指导,特别是对于性传播感染率高的国家。我们的模型在女性中产生了更高的累积感染,这与观察结果一致。我们的研究结果为预防和控制针对 ZIKV 的蚊人传播和性传播提供了一些指导,特别是对于性传播感染率高的国家。
更新日期:2021-03-01
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