In the transport management of aviation networks, uncertain factors and delay propagation are two main sources of flight delays. However, the impacts of uncertainty and the degree of delays are difficult to calculate empirically in daily operations. In this paper, a novel delay propagation model is introduced utilising the mathematical modelling tool coloured–timed Petri nets. This model enables descriptions of the delay propagation progress and flight delay calculation under the influence of uncertain factors. In order to understand the influence of airline network operations with uncertainties, the mechanisms of the main uncertainties (weather factors, air traffic control (ATC) factors and other low-probability random factors) are studied and probability functions are obtained. To simulate conditions under different uncertainties, experiments were carried out on an aviation network comprising 13 airports under different settings of bad weather and ATC. The simulation results revealed the influence of different uncertain factors, delay propagation time through flight chains and delay prediction in the aviation network. Based on the predicted flight delays, flight sequence update rules were established, which showed that the updated flight sequence significantly reduced flight delays compared with the original flight sequence.

中文翻译：

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有色Petri网中具有不确定性的航空运输延迟传播分析

在航空网络的运输管理中，不确定因素和延误传播是航班延误的两个主要来源。但是，在日常操作中，难以凭经验计算不确定性和延迟程度的影响。在本文中，利用数学建模工具彩色定时Petri网介绍了一种新型的延迟传播模型。该模型能够描述不确定因素影响下的延误传播进度和飞行延误计算。为了了解不确定性对航空公司网络运营的影响，研究了主要不确定性（天气因素，空中交通管制（ATC）因素和其他低概率随机因素）的机制，并获得了概率函数。为了模拟不同不确定性下的条件，实验是在包括13个机场的航空网络上进行的，这些机场在恶劣天气和ATC的不同设置下。仿真结果揭示了航空网络中不同不确定因素，延迟通过飞行链传播时间以及延迟预测的影响。基于预测的航班延误，建立了航班延误更新规则，该规则表明，与原始航班延误相比，更新后的航班延误显着减少了航班延误。