1. The effects of climate change on species distribution are typically inferred based on species distribution models (SDMs) that do not account for the dispersal ability of species.
2. Here we investigated the utility of dispersal ability measures in predicting the distribution of 10 Platycerus species in Japan, which are cold‐adapted stag beetles sharing ecological and morphological features.
3. We generated three SDMs based on environmental variables without dispersal constraint and incorporating two alternative dispersal constraint scenarios. We compared these three models with respect to SDM performance and the predicted degree of range overlap between neighbouring species. Using the best models among three SDMs, we predicted range shifts under climate change. Additionally, we characterised environmental differences among species distributional areas.
4. Our results revealed that models incorporating dispersal constraints had better predictive performance. Platycerus delicatulus occupied a largest suitable habitat and P. sue had a narrow range in Japan. Most of Platycerus taxa in 2070 were predicted to lose large portions of present suitable areas. Moreover, environment was confirmed to affect the distribution of the targeted species.
5. Incorporating dispersal ability to better understand the effects of climate change on the species ranges is a crucial step towards developing policies for insect management and conservation of vulnerable species.

中文翻译：

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散布限制了日本冷适应型甲虫（Platycerus属）的潜在分布以及气候变化的影响

1. 气候变化对物种分布的影响通常是根据物种分布模型（SDM）推断的，该模型不考虑物种的扩散能力。
2. 在这里，我们研究了分散能力测度在预测日本10种侧柏的分布中的实用性，这些物种是具有生态和形态特征的冷适应锹形甲虫。
3. 我们基于无分散约束的环境变量生成了三个SDM，并结合了两种替代性分散约束方案。我们比较了这三个模型的SDM性能以及相邻物种之间的范围重叠预测程度。使用三个SDM中的最佳模型，我们预测了气候变化下的距离变化。此外，我们描述了物种分布区域之间的环境差异。
4. 我们的结果表明，结合分散约束的模型具有更好的预测性能。在日本，桔梗占据了最大的适宜栖息地，而P. sue的范围很窄。预计到2070年，大部分桔梗类群将失去目前合适区域的很大一部分。此外，已确认环境会影响目标物种的分布。
5. 纳入传播能力以更好地了解气候变化对物种范围的影响，是制定昆虫管理和保护脆弱物种政策的关键一步。