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Ranking the effectiveness of worldwide COVID-19 government interventions
Nature Human Behaviour ( IF 29.9 ) Pub Date : 2020-11-16 , DOI: 10.1038/s41562-020-01009-0
Nina Haug 1, 2 , Lukas Geyrhofer 2 , Alessandro Londei 3 , Elma Dervic 1, 2 , Amélie Desvars-Larrive 2, 4 , Vittorio Loreto 2, 3, 5 , Beate Pinior 2, 4 , Stefan Thurner 1, 2, 6 , Peter Klimek 1, 2
Affiliation  

Assessing the effectiveness of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) to mitigate the spread of SARS-CoV-2 is critical to inform future preparedness response plans. Here we quantify the impact of 6,068 hierarchically coded NPIs implemented in 79 territories on the effective reproduction number, Rt, of COVID-19. We propose a modelling approach that combines four computational techniques merging statistical, inference and artificial intelligence tools. We validate our findings with two external datasets recording 42,151 additional NPIs from 226 countries. Our results indicate that a suitable combination of NPIs is necessary to curb the spread of the virus. Less disruptive and costly NPIs can be as effective as more intrusive, drastic, ones (for example, a national lockdown). Using country-specific ‘what-if’ scenarios, we assess how the effectiveness of NPIs depends on the local context such as timing of their adoption, opening the way for forecasting the effectiveness of future interventions.



中文翻译:

对全球 COVID-19 政府干预措施的有效性进行排名

评估非药物干预 (NPI) 以减轻 SARS-CoV-2 传播的有效性对于为未来的准备应对计划提供信息至关重要。在这里,我们量化了在 79 个地区实施的 6,068 个分级编码 NPI 对有效再生数R t的影响,COVID-19。我们提出了一种建模方法,它结合了四种计算技术,融合了统计、推理和人工智能工具。我们使用两个外部数据集验证了我们的发现,该数据集记录了来自 226 个国家的 42,151 个额外的 NPI。我们的结果表明,需要适当的 NPI 组合来遏制病毒的传播。破坏性较小且成本较高的 NPI 可能与更具侵入性、激进的 NPI 一样有效(例如,国家封锁)。使用特定国家的“假设”情景,我们评估 NPI 的有效性如何取决于当地情况,例如采用时间,从而为预测未来干预措施的有效性开辟了道路。

更新日期:2020-11-16
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