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Water Conflict Management between Agricultural and Wetland under Climate Change: Application of Economic-Hydrological-Behavioral Modelling
Water Resources Management ( IF 4.3 ) Pub Date : 2020-11-16 , DOI: 10.1007/s11269-020-02703-4
Abbas Mirzaei , Mansour Zibaei

Water resources at the basin level are affected by climate change in the form of available water scarcity and multiple droughts leading to conflicts among different water users, especially between the agricultural sector and wetland services. However, owing to the multidimensional and multi-scalar nature of water management and climate change, it is needed to integrate tools to analyze impacts and adaptation. Accordingly, the current study presents an economic-hydrological-behavioral modeling to evaluate potential effects of climate change and adaptation strategies on irrigated agriculture and to manage water resources conflicts among different water users and uses in basins. This model has an iterative framework between a farm-based multi-objectives optimization model, a water evaluating and planning model (WEAP), and an agent-based model, which can represent socio-economic, hydrologic, agronomic and behavioral systems covering all dimensions and scales related to climate change. For this purpose, the economic-hydrological-behavioral modelling was applied in a case study in the Halilrud Basin in Kerman Province, Iran. Results revealed that adoption of suitable adaptive strategies and measures could mitigate the effects of climate change and provide more water to restore the Jazmourian Wetland in this basin. Additionally, the results indicated that different forms of rigidity in the individual behavior of farmers slowed down the adaptation of the agricultural sector, so that implementation of adaptive strategies led to only 14% less water consumption.



中文翻译:

气候变化下农业与湿地之间的水冲突管理:经济-水文-行为模型的应用

流域一级的水资源受到气候变化的影响,其形式为可利用的水资源短缺和多重干旱,导致不同用水者之间,特别是农业部门和湿地服务之间的冲突。但是,由于水管理和气候变化具有多层面和多层面的性质,因此需要整合各种工具来分析影响和适应。因此,本研究提出了一种经济-水文-行为模型,以评估气候变化和适应策略对灌溉农业的潜在影响,并管理流域内不同用水户和用途之间的水资源冲突。该模型在基于农场的多目标优化模型,水评估和计划模型(WEAP)和基于代理的模型之间具有迭代框架,它可以代表涵盖与气候变化有关的所有方面和规模的社会经济,水文,农艺和行为系统。为此,在伊朗克尔曼省Halilrud盆地的案例研究中采用了经济-水文-行为模型。结果表明,采取适当的适应策略和措施可以减轻气候变化的影响,并提供更多的水来恢复该盆地的贾兹穆里人湿地。此外,结果表明,农民个人行为的不同形式的僵化减慢了农业部门的适应速度,因此实施适应性战略仅能减少14%的用水量。为此,在伊朗克尔曼省Halilrud盆地的案例研究中采用了经济-水文-行为模型。结果表明,采取适当的适应策略和措施可以减轻气候变化的影响,并提供更多的水来恢复该盆地的贾兹穆里人湿地。此外,结果表明,农民个人行为的不同形式的僵化减慢了农业部门的适应速度,因此实施适应性战略仅能减少14%的用水量。为此,在伊朗克尔曼省Halilrud盆地的案例研究中采用了经济-水文-行为模型。结果表明,采取适当的适应策略和措施可以减轻气候变化的影响,并提供更多的水来恢复该盆地的贾兹穆里人湿地。此外,结果表明,农民个人行为的不同形式的僵化减慢了农业部门的适应速度,因此实施适应性战略仅能减少14%的用水量。结果表明,采取适当的适应策略和措施可以减轻气候变化的影响,并提供更多的水来恢复该盆地的贾兹穆里人湿地。此外,结果表明,农民个人行为的不同形式的僵化减慢了农业部门的适应速度,因此实施适应性战略仅能减少14%的用水量。结果表明,采取适当的适应策略和措施可以减轻气候变化的影响,并提供更多的水来恢复该盆地的贾兹穆里人湿地。此外,结果表明,农民个人行为的不同形式的僵化减慢了农业部门的适应速度,因此实施适应性战略仅能减少14%的用水量。

更新日期:2020-11-16
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