Modeling disturbance-based tree mortality is becoming increasingly important in the discussion of how to adapt forests to climate change and to preserve their ecosystem services and mitigate the risk of economic losses. In this study, we fitted species-specific interval-censored Accelerated Failure Time models for five major tree species to derive the influence of climate, soil, silvicultural measures, stand and tree characteristics on survival times. We coded all disturbance-based mortality causes as events and analyzed 473,501 individual trees distributed across 2248 long-term (1929–2014) forest growth and yield plots in southwestern Germany. We observed different survival probabilities among tree species with Douglas-fir having the lowest survival probability at age 100 years, followed by Norway spruce and Silver fir. Contrastingly, beech and oak had survival probabilities above 0.98 at age 100 years. Most important factor influencing these survival times was climate. Higher summer temperature shortens the survival time of beech, Silver fir and oak, while Norway spruce suffers more from warmer and wetter winters. Beside climatic factors, base saturation showed a significant positive relationship to survival time for all investigated tree species, except for Norway spruce, which had shorter survival times with increasing cation exchange capacity of the soil. Additionally, short-term effects of destabilization after thinning were found. In conclusion, favoring broadleaved tree species, avoiding heavy thinning in older stands and limiting tree age reduce the probability of disturbance-based tree mortality. However, some of the effects found that cause-unspecific mortality modeling has limited potential to describe the mortality–climate change relation.

中文翻译：

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九十五年观察到的基于干扰的树木死亡率，用气候敏感的加速失效时间模型建模

在讨论如何使森林适应气候变化、保护其生态系统服务和减轻经济损失风险的讨论中，基于干扰的树木死亡率建模变得越来越重要。在这项研究中，我们为五种主要树种拟合了特定物种的间隔删失加速失效时间模型，以推导出气候、土壤、造林措施、林分和树木特征对存活时间的影响。我们将所有基于干扰的死亡原因编码为事件，并分析了分布在德国西南部 2248 个长期（1929-2014 年）森林生长和产量地块中的 473,501 棵个体树木。我们观察到不同树种的存活概率不同，花旗松在 100 年时的存活概率最低，其次是挪威云杉和银杉。相比之下，山毛榉和橡木在 100 岁时的存活概率高于 0.98。影响这些存活时间的最重要因素是气候。夏季较高的温度会缩短山毛榉、银冷杉和橡木的存活时间，而挪威云杉则更容易受到温暖潮湿的冬季的影响。除气候因素外，除挪威云杉外，随着土壤阳离子交换能力的增加，挪威云杉的存活时间较短，基础饱和度与所有研究树种的存活时间呈显着正相关。此外，还发现了稀释后不稳定的短期影响。总之，偏爱阔叶树种、避免老林分大量间伐和限制树龄可降低基于干扰的树木死亡的可能性。然而，