Coupling 3‐D hydrodynamics with climate models is necessary but difficult for resolving multiscale interactions and has been rarely implemented in predicting Great Lakes' water level fluctuations because of issues in treating net basin supply (NBS) components and connecting channel flows. This study developed an interactive lake‐atmosphere‐hydrology modeling system by coupling the regional Climate‐Weather Research and Forecasting model (CWRF) with the 3‐D unstructured‐grid Finite Volume Coastal Ocean Model (FVCOM) in the Great Lakes region. The sensitivity of the coupled system, relative to the CWRF baseline using the 1‐D Lake, Ice, Snow and Sediment Simulator (LISSS), was evaluated in representing lake‐climate conditions during 1999–2015 against observations. As coupled with CWRF, FVCOM outperformed LISSS in simulating water surface temperature, ice cover, and vertical thermal structure at seasonal to interannual scales for all the five lakes and realistically reproduced the regional circulation patterns. In warm seasons, the improved lake conditions significantly corrected LISSS overestimates of surface air temperature together with larger‐scale circulation changes. Consequently, precipitation was generally reduced over each lake basin, mainly because of decreased surface moisture and heat fluxes along with enhanced atmospheric stability. Through the dynamic coupling, FVCOM predicts the water level fluctuations in direct response to the CWRF NBS components and connecting channel flows based on a stage‐fall‐discharge formulation. This coupled CWRF‐FVCOM reasonably captured the NBS variations and predicted the water level fluctuations for Lakes Superior and Michigan‐Huron. It represents a major advance in interacting regional climate and watershed processes to dynamically predict Great Lakes' water level seasonal‐interannual variations.

中文翻译：

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开发耦合的CWRF-FVCOM建模系统，以了解和预测大湖地区的大气-流域相互作用

将3D流体动力学与气候模型耦合是解决多尺度相互作用的必要条件，但十分困难，并且由于处理净流域供水（NBS）组件和连接河道水流的问题，因此在预测大湖水位波动时很少采用。这项研究通过结合大湖地区的区域气候-天气研究和预报模型（CWRF）与3D非结构化网格有限体积沿海海洋模型（FVCOM），开发了一个互动的湖泊-大气-水文学模型系统。相对于使用一维湖泊，冰，雪和沉积物模拟器（LISSS）的CWRF基线，耦合系统的敏感度通过代表观测的1999-2015年湖泊气候条件进行了评估。加上CWRF，FVCOM在模拟所有五个湖泊的季节到年际尺度的水面温度，冰盖和垂直热结构方面均优于LISSS，并真实地再现了区域环流模式。在温暖的季节，改善的湖泊条件大大纠正了LISSS对地表气温的高估以及更大范围的环流变化。因此，每个湖泊流域的降水通常减少，这主要是由于减少了表面水分和热通量以及增强了大气稳定性。通过动态耦合，FVCOM根据阶段下降流量公式预测直接响应CWRF NBS组件和连接通道流量的水位波动。这种耦合的CWRF-FVCOM合理地捕获了NBS的变化，并预测了苏必利尔湖和密歇根-休伦的水位波动。它代表了区域气候和流域过程相互作用以动态预测大湖区水位季节-年际变化的重大进展。