Infrastructure Projects (IP) are characterised by their extreme complexity in construction and management. Lack of effective risk analysis in construction of IP can cause failure in projects delivery. This paper aims to produce specific guidelines for the efficient application of quantitative risk analysis process. The literature guided contractors into efficient quantitative risk analysis (QRA) of IP to improve contractors QRA practices in the presence of uncertainty during the construction stage. The paper reviewed the literature of QRA process in construction of IP, and then performed a full quantitative risk analysis on a case study of IP in Egypt. The study includes sewage networks, water networks, irrigation networks, and district cooling networks of Cairo festival city project. The paper used an infrastructure schedule to apply the quantitative risk analysis. The schedule included activities for the construction of sewage networks, irrigation network, water network, and district cooling network. Based on the findings, Monte Carlo analysis technique has proved to be an efficient quantitative technique in supporting project managers in allocating deviations. Whereas, sensitivity analysis technique helped in ranking the most driving activities to failure in delivery of IP. The paper added value by providing knowledge and practical guidance for contractors in improving their QRA practice and decision making during the construction of IP.

基础设施项目 (IP) 的特点是建设和管理极其复杂。知识产权建设缺乏有效的风险分析会导致项目交付失败。本文旨在为定量风险分析过程的有效应用制定具体的指导方针。文献指导承包商进行有效的 IP 定量风险分析 (QRA)，以在施工阶段存在不确定性的情况下改进承包商 QRA 实践。本文回顾了知识产权建设中QRA流程的文献，然后对埃及知识产权案例研究进行了全面的定量风险分析。该研究包括开罗节日城市项目的污水管网、供水管网、灌溉管网和区域供冷管网。本文使用基础设施计划来应用定量风险分析。该时间表包括建设污水管网、灌溉管网、供水管网和区域供冷管网的活动。基于这些发现，蒙特卡罗分析技术已被证明是一种支持项目经理分配偏差的有效定量技术。而敏感性分析技术有助于对导致 IP 交付失败的最主要原因进行排名。该论文通过为承包商在知识产权建设过程中改进 QRA 实践和决策制定提供知识和实践指导来增加价值。蒙特卡罗分析技术已被证明是一种支持项目经理分配偏差的有效定量技术。而敏感性分析技术有助于对导致 IP 交付失败的最主要原因进行排名。该论文通过为承包商在 IP 建设过程中改进 QRA 实践和决策制定提供知识和实践指导来增加价值。蒙特卡罗分析技术已被证明是一种支持项目经理分配偏差的有效定量技术。而敏感性分析技术有助于对导致 IP 交付失败的最主要原因进行排名。该论文通过为承包商在知识产权建设过程中改进 QRA 实践和决策制定提供知识和实践指导来增加价值。