Abstract Offshore drilling is a complex and hazardous operation. The safety of the drilling operation is a strong function of many time-dependent parameters. The traditional risk analysis model fails to capture the impact of spatial and temporal variations of these parameters. This paper presents a Bayesian Network (BN) model for the offshore drilling operation. The model uniquely considers the evolution of hazards as a function of time and space, and failure of the safety barriers. The model development is explained using the bowtie approach, which is routinely used in the industry for risk management. The bowtie model is subsequently transformed into a BN model and simulated for the well blowout scenarios. The blowout risk is updated based on operational field observations. An uncertainty analysis is also conducted to capture the spatial variability of the parameters. The results of the BN model provide a dynamic risk profile of the blowout accident during the drilling operation. Other possible accident scenarios, such as lost circulation, can also be analyzed using the proposed model. The proposed BN model serves as a robust tool for risk management of offshore drilling operations.

中文翻译：

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海上钻井作业井喷情景操作风险分析

摘要 海上钻井是一项复杂而危险的作业。钻井作业的安全性是许多与时间相关的参数的强函数。传统的风险分析模型无法捕捉这些参数的空间和时间变化的影响。本文提出了一种用于海上钻井作业的贝叶斯网络 (BN) 模型。该模型独特地将危险的演变视为时间和空间的函数，以及安全屏障的失效。模型开发使用领结方法进行解释，该方法在行业中经常用于风险管理。随后将领结模型转换为 BN 模型并针对井喷场景进行模拟。井喷风险根据现场操作观察进行更新。还进行了不确定性分析以捕捉参数的空间变异性。BN 模型的结果提供了钻井作业期间井喷事故的动态风险概况。其他可能的事故场景，例如漏失，也可以使用所提出的模型进行分析。拟议的 BN 模型可作为海上钻井作业风险管理的强大工具。