Abstract Mathematical models on physical bases were developed to predict which areas are susceptible to landslides. The TRIGRS (Transient Rainfall Infiltration and Grid-based Regional) model also offers the possibility of identifying the depth where the Factor of Safety (Fs) reaches values lower than one, thus constituting hypothetical rupture surfaces. The present study aims to assess the variation of the Fs according to depth and the susceptibility of slopes using the TRIGRS model in a basin in the Serra do Mar Mountain Range (Brazil) impacted by landslides in 1967, based on geotechnical and hydrological values collected both from the existing literature and field generated data. Two stability scenarios were generated through the model, with geotechnical and hydrological values available in the literature being used for the first one, and field values collected in the area itself for the second. The scenarios were validated by means of two indexes, Scar Concentration (SC) and Landslide Potential (LP), both taken from the 1967 scar mapping. In validation (SC index), both of them scenarios, albeit with different spatial distributions, presented the same values, that is, 67% (Fs ≤ 1) and 33% (Fs > 1), which indicates a high percentage of correct results. The results pointed to a rupture surface ranging between 2.00 m and 2.50 m. Due to the satisfactory results obtained, TRIGRS may be used by the public authorities interested in defining and monitoring areas of susceptibility and hazard to landslides.

中文翻译：

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使用 TRIGRS 模型评估浅层滑坡敏感性和安全变异系数，巴西塞拉杜马尔山脉

摘要 建立了基于物理基础的数学模型来预测哪些区域容易发生滑坡。TRIGRS（瞬态降雨入渗和基于网格的区域）模型还提供了识别安全系数 (Fs) 达到低于 1 值的深度的可能性，从而构成假设的破裂面。本研究旨在根据 1967 年在 Serra do Mar 山脉（巴西）受滑坡影响的盆地中使用 TRIGRS 模型，根据坡度的深度和敏感性评估 Fs 的变化，基于收集到的岩土工程和水文值。从现有文献和现场生成的数据。通过该模型生成了两个稳定性场景，第一个使用了文献中可用的岩土和水文值，和在第二个区域本身收集的字段值。这些情景通过两个指标进行验证，疤痕浓度 (SC) 和滑坡潜力 (LP)，两者均取自 1967 年的疤痕绘图。在验证（SC 指数）中，这两个场景，尽管空间分布不同，但呈现相同的值，即 67% (Fs ≤ 1) 和 33% (Fs > 1)，这表明正确结果的百分比很高. 结果表明破裂面在 2.00 m 和 2.50 m 之间。由于获得了令人满意的结果，对定义和监测滑坡易感和危险区域感兴趣的公共当局可以使用 TRIGRS。两者均取自 1967 年的疤痕测绘。在验证（SC 指数）中，这两个场景，尽管空间分布不同，但呈现相同的值，即 67% (Fs ≤ 1) 和 33% (Fs > 1)，这表明正确结果的百分比很高. 结果表明破裂面在 2.00 m 和 2.50 m 之间。由于获得了令人满意的结果，对定义和监测滑坡易感和危险区域感兴趣的公共当局可以使用 TRIGRS。两者均取自 1967 年的疤痕测绘。在验证（SC 指数）中，这两个场景，尽管空间分布不同，但呈现相同的值，即 67% (Fs ≤ 1) 和 33% (Fs > 1)，这表明正确结果的百分比很高. 结果表明破裂面在 2.00 m 和 2.50 m 之间。由于获得了令人满意的结果，对定义和监测滑坡易感和危险区域感兴趣的公共当局可以使用 TRIGRS。