Abstract The forest and energy sectors are heavily affected by the urgent need for global climate gas emission reductions. To fully understand the implications of a transition to a low carbon society, it is important to analyse the interactions between these sectors. We herein present a coupled/integrated modelling approach that integrates a Nordic Forest Sector Model (NFSM) and a North European energy sector model (Balmorel). Both models include endogenous investment in new production capacity and market prices obtained by market equilibrium in competitive markets. The new integrated model is used to investigate forest and energy sector impacts of a low carbon scenario in the Nordic countries. The results from the integrated model approach show a steady increase in use of forest resources for heat and power generation from 47 TWh in 2020 to 117 TWh in 2050, and a corresponding increase in biomass prices. Comparing these results with results from the two individual models suggests that the integration procedure provides more realistic biomass price and volume projections compared with standalone models.

中文翻译：

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森林和能源部门模型的整合——生物能源市场的新见解

摘要 森林和能源部门受到全球气候气体减排的迫切需求的严重影响。为了充分理解向低碳社会过渡的影响，分析这些部门之间的相互作用非常重要。我们在此提出了一种耦合/集成建模方法，该方法集成了北欧森林部门模型 (NFSM) 和北欧能源部门模型 (Balmorel)。两种模型都包括对新产能的内生投资和在竞争市场中通过市场均衡获得的市场价格。新的综合模型用于调查北欧国家低碳情景对森林和能源部门的影响。综合模型方法的结果表明，森林资源用于热力和发电的使用量从 2020 年的 47 TWh 稳步增加到 2050 年的 117 TWh，生物质价格也相应上涨。将这些结果与两个单独模型的结果进行比较表明，与独立模型相比，整合程序提供了更现实的生物量价格和数量预测。