About 70% of the world's main crops depend on insect pollination. Climate change is already affecting the abundance and distribution of insects, which could cause geographical mismatches between crops and their pollinators. Crops that rely primarily on wild pollinators (e.g., crops that cannot be effectively pollinated by commercial colonies of honey bees) could be particularly in jeopardy. However, limited information on plant–pollinator associations and pollinator distributions complicate the assessment of climate change impacts on specific crops. To study the potential impacts of climate change on pollination of a specific crop in North America, we use the case of open‐field tomato crops, which rely on buzz pollinators (species that use vibration to release pollen, such as bumble bees) to increase their production. We aimed to (1) assess potential changes in buzz pollinator distribution and richness, and (2) evaluate the overlap between areas with high densities of tomato crops and high potential decrease in richness. We used baseline (1961–1990) climate and future (2050s and 2080s) climatic projections in ecological niche models fitted with occurrences of wild bees, documented in the literature as pollinators of tomatoes, to estimate the baseline and future potential distribution of suitable climatic conditions of targeted species and to create maps of richness change across North America. We obtained reliable models for 15 species and found important potential decreases in the distribution of some pollinators (e.g., Lasioglossum pectorale and Augochlorella aurata). We observed geographical discrepancies in the projected change in species richness across North America, detecting important declines in the eastern United States (up to 11 species decrease for 2050s). After overlapping the maps of species richness change with a tomato crop map for the United States, we found spatial correspondence between richness declines and areas with high concentration of tomato crops. Disparities in the effects of climate change on the potential future distribution of different wild pollinators and geographical variation in richness highlight the importance of crop‐specific studies. Our study also emphasizes the challenges of compiling and modeling crop‐specific pollinator data and the need to improve our understanding of current distribution of pollinators and their community dynamics under climate change.

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气候变化下北美番茄授粉媒介物种丰富度的潜在区域性下降

世界上约70％的主要农作物依靠昆虫授粉。气候变化已经在影响昆虫的数量和分布，这可能导致农作物及其授粉媒介之间的地理失配。主要依赖野生传粉媒介的农作物（例如不能被蜜蜂商业蜂群有效传粉的农作物）可能尤其危险。但是，关于植物-授粉媒介协会和授粉媒介分布的信息有限，使气候变化对特定农作物影响的评估变得复杂。为了研究气候变化对北美特定农作物授粉的潜在影响，我们以开放田间番茄作物为例，该农作物依靠嗡嗡声传粉者（利用振动释放花粉的物种，例如大黄蜂）来增加他们的生产。我们的目的是（1）评估嗡嗡声传粉者分布和丰富度的潜在变化，以及（2）评估番茄作物高密度区域和丰富度潜在降低区域之间的重叠。我们在符合生态蜜蜂模型的基线（1961–1990）气候和未来（2050s和2080s）气候预测中，拟合了野生蜜蜂的出现，并在文献中作为西红柿的传粉媒介进行了记录，以估算适宜气候条件的基线和未来的潜在分布。确定目标物种，并绘制整个北美地区丰富度变化的地图。我们获得了15种物种的可靠模型，并发现某些传粉媒介分布的潜在潜在重要减少（例如，（2）评估高密度番茄作物区域与潜在富裕度下降区域之间的重叠。我们在符合生态蜜蜂模型的基线（1961–1990）气候和未来（2050s和2080s）气候预测中，拟合了野生蜜蜂的出现，并在文献中作为西红柿的传粉媒介进行了记录，以估算适宜气候条件的基线和未来的潜在分布。确定目标物种，并绘制整个北美地区丰富度变化的地图。我们获得了15种物种的可靠模型，并发现某些传粉媒介分布的潜在潜在重要减少（例如，（2）评估高密度番茄作物区域与潜在富裕度下降区域之间的重叠。我们在符合生态蜜蜂模型的基线（1961–1990）气候和未来（2050s和2080s）气候预测中，拟合了野生蜜蜂的出现，并在文献中作为西红柿的传粉媒介进行了记录，以估算适宜气候条件的基线和未来的潜在分布。确定目标物种，并绘制整个北美地区丰富度变化的地图。我们获得了15种物种的可靠模型，并发现某些传粉媒介分布的潜在潜在重要减少（例如，在文献中有记载为西红柿的传粉者，以估计目标物种的适宜气候条件的基线和未来的潜在分布，并绘制整个北美的丰富度变化图。我们获得了15种物种的可靠模型，并发现某些传粉媒介分布的潜在潜在重要减少（例如，在文献中有记载为西红柿的传粉者，以估计目标物种的适宜气候条件的基线和未来的潜在分布，并绘制整个北美的丰富度变化图。我们获得了15种物种的可靠模型，并发现某些传粉媒介分布的潜在潜在重要减少（例如，Lasioglossum pectorale和Augochlorella鲷）。我们观察到北美地区物种丰富度预计变化的地理差异，发现了美国东部地区的重要下降趋势（2050年代最多下降了11种）。在将物种丰富度变化的地图与美国的番茄作物图重叠后，我们发现了丰富度下降与番茄作物集中地区之间的空间对应关系。气候变化对不同野生传粉媒介未来可能的分布的影响方面的差异以及丰富程度的地理差异凸显了针对作物的研究的重要性。我们的研究还强调了编译和建模特定农作物授粉媒介数据的挑战，以及需要加深对气候变化下授粉媒介当前分布及其群落动态的了解。