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Catastrophic climate change, population ethics and intergenerational equity
Climatic Change ( IF 4.8 ) Pub Date : 2020-11-01 , DOI: 10.1007/s10584-020-02899-9
Aurélie Méjean , Antonin Pottier , Marc Fleurbaey , Stéphane Zuber

Climate change threatens irreversible and dangerous impacts, possibly leading to extinction. The most relevant trade-off then may not be between present and future consumption but between present consumption and the mere existence of future generations. To investigate this trade-off, we build an integrated assessment model that explicitly accounts for the risk of extinction of future generations. Using the class of number-dampened utilitarian social welfare functions, we compare different climate policies that change the probability of catastrophic outcomes yielding an early extinction. We analyse the role of inequality aversion and population ethics. Low inequality aversion and a preference for large populations favour the most ambitious climate policy, although there are cases where the effect of inequality aversion on the preferred policy is reversed. This is due to the fact that a higher inequality aversion both decreases the welfare loss of reducing consumption of the current generation and also decreases the welfare gain of reducing the future risk of extinction.

中文翻译:

灾难性气候变化、人口伦理和代际公平

气候变化威胁着不可逆转的危险影响,可能导致灭绝。最相关的权衡可能不是在现在和未来的消费之间,而是在当前的消费和后代的存在之间。为了研究这种权衡,我们建立了一个综合评估模型,明确考虑了后代灭绝的风险。使用受数字抑制的功利社会福利函数的类别,我们比较了不同的气候政策,这些政策改变了导致早期灭绝的灾难性结果的可能性。我们分析了不平等厌恶和人口伦理的作用。低不平等厌恶和对大量人口的偏好有利于最雄心勃勃的气候政策,尽管在某些情况下,不平等厌恶对偏好政策的影响会发生逆转。这是因为更高的不平等厌恶既减少了当前一代减少消费的福利损失,也减少了减少未来灭绝风险的福利收益。
更新日期:2020-11-01
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