Abstract Knowledge on the effects of climate change in a system can contribute to the better management of its water and energy resources. This study evaluates the consequences of alterations in the rainfall and temperature patterns for a hydroelectric plant. The methodology adopted consists of four steps. First, a hydrological model is developed for the chosen basin following a semi-distributed and conceptual approach. The hydrological model is calibrated utilizing the optimization algorithm Shuffled Complex Evolution - University of Arizona (SCE-UA) and then validated. Secondly, a hydropower model is developed for a hydroelectric plant of the chosen basin. The hydropower model is adjusted to the physical characteristics of the plant. Thirdly, future climate scenarios are extracted from the literature for the studied area. These scenarios include quantitative and seasonal climate variations, as well as different initial reservoir levels. Fourth, the hydrological-hydropower model is simulated for 52 scenarios and the impact of changes in the rainfall and temperature patterns for hydropower generation is evaluated. For each scenario, the water storage in the reservoir and energy produced by the plant are analyzed. The financial impact for extreme scenarios is presented. The methodology is applied to the Tres Marias hydroelectric plant at the upper Sao Francisco river basin (Brazil) and it can be replicated to any other hydropower system. The results show that extreme positive values predicted for rainfall will likely not cause issues to the plant, considering a moderate rise in temperature. However, negative predictions for rainfall, regardless of changes in temperature, should be an alert to the authorities responsible for water and energy resources management.

中文翻译：

---

未来气候情景中的水力发电

摘要 了解气候变化对系统的影响有助于更好地管理其水和能源资源。这项研究评估了水力发电厂降雨和温度模式变化的后果。所采用的方法包括四个步骤。首先，采用半分布式和概念方法为所选流域开发水文模型。水文模型使用优化算法 Shuffled Complex Evolution - University of Arizona (SCE-UA) 进行校准，然后进行验证。其次，为所选流域的水力发电厂开发水电模型。水电模型根据电厂的物理特性进行调整。第三，从研究区域的文献中提取未来的气候情景。这些情景包括数量和季节性气候变化，以及不同的初始水库水位。第四，水文-水电模型对52个场景进行了模拟，评估了降雨和温度模式变化对水力发电的影响。对于每种情况，都会分析水库中的蓄水量和工厂产生的能量。列出了极端情况下的财务影响。该方法应用于圣弗朗西斯科河流域上游（巴西）的 Tres Marias 水力发电厂，并且可以复制到任何其他水力发电系统。结果表明，考虑到温度适度上升，预测的极端正值降雨可能不会对工厂造成问题。然而，对降雨的负面预测，