The need for reliable prediction of species distributions dependent upon traits has been hindered by a lack of model transferability testing. We tested the predictive capacity of trait‐SDMs by fitting hierarchical generalised linear models with three trait and four environmental predictors for 20 eucalypt taxa in a reference region. We used these models to predict occurrence for a much larger set of taxa and target areas (82 taxa across 18 target regions) in south‐eastern Australia. Median predictive performance for new species in target regions was 0.65 (area under receiver operating curve) and 1.24 times random (area under precision recall curve). Prediction in target regions did not worsen with increasing geographic, environmental or community compositional distance from the reference region, and was improved with reliable trait–environment relationships. Transfer testing also identified trait–environment relationships that did not transfer. These results give confidence that traits and transfer testing can assist in the hard problem of predicting environmental responses for new species, environmental conditions and regions.

中文翻译：

---

基于性状的物种分布模型的可传递性

缺乏模型可传递性测试阻碍了对依赖于性状的物种分布进行可靠预测的需求。我们通过对参考区域中20个桉树类群的三个特征和四个环境预测因子的分层广义线性模型进行拟合，测试了特征SDM的预测能力。我们使用这些模型来预测澳大利亚东南部更大的一组分类单元和目标区域（18个目标区域中的82个分类单元）的发生。目标区域中新物种的平均预测性能为0.65（接收者工作曲线下的区域）和1.24倍随机（精确召回曲线下的区域）。随着与参考区域的地理，环境或社区组成距离的增加，目标区域的预测不会恶化，并通过可靠的特质-环境关系得到了改善。转移测试还确定了没有转移的性状与环境的关系。这些结果使人相信，性状和转移测试可以解决预测新物种，环境条件和地区的环境响应这一难题。