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Predicting Extreme Solar Flare Events Using Lu and Hamilton Avalanche Model
Solar Physics ( IF 2.8 ) Pub Date : 2020-11-01 , DOI: 10.1007/s11207-020-01713-0
L. F. Morales , N. A. Santos

Solar flares are the most powerful events in the solar atmosphere, releasing a huge amount of energy in a few minutes. Any progress in predicting when a flare of a big magnitude will occur is extremely important to evaluate the risk related to space weather. The Lu and Hamilton (Astrophys. J. Lett. 380, L89, 1991) self-organized criticality (SOC) model for solar flares is the one most conspicuous amongst the several avalanche models for flares that have been developed in the last 30 years. It has been very successful in reproducing some of the characteristic features of observed flares (e.g. probability density function of flare energy) and in the last years has been explored as a way of predicting extreme flaring events. In this work, we study the predicting capabilities of Lu and Hamilton model by assessing the proximity to stability of the 2D lattice and studying the influence of the lattice structure in the generation of large avalanches. We find that the mean value of the lattice nodes bears enough information to predict large avalanches in more than half of the cases, making it a reliable precursor for forecasting purposes.

中文翻译:

使用 Lu 和 Hamilton Avalanche 模型预测极端太阳耀斑事件

太阳耀斑是太阳大气中最强大的事件,在几分钟内释放出大量的能量。预测大规模耀斑何时发生的任何进展对于评估与空间天气相关的风险都极为重要。Lu 和 Hamilton (Astrophys. J. Lett. 380, L89, 1991) 太阳耀斑的自组织临界 (SOC) 模型是过去 30 年来开发的几种耀斑雪崩模型中最引人注目的模型。它在再现观测到的耀斑的一些特征(例如耀斑能量的概率密度函数)方面非常成功,并且在过去几年中被探索作为预测极端耀斑事件的一种方式。在这项工作中,我们通过评估二维晶格稳定性的接近度和研究晶格结构对大雪崩产生的影响来研究 Lu 和 Hamilton 模型的预测能力。我们发现晶格节点的平均值承载了足够的信息来预测超过一半的情况下的大雪崩,使其成为预测目的的可靠前兆。
更新日期:2020-11-01
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