Host life history and demography play important roles in host–pathogen dynamics, by influencing the ability of hosts and their pathogens to coexist. We introduce the concept of demographic competence to describe the ability of host populations to sustain endemic infectious disease. Hosts with high demographic competence are more likely to act as keystone hosts and constitute reservoirs of infection that can spill over into other species. We propose that the pace of host life history will interact with pathogen life history to influence demographic competence. Our models demonstrate that slow-living hosts (with high survival and low recruitment rates) have greater demographic competence than fast-living hosts (with low survival and high recruitment rates) for susceptible–infected disease dynamics, although this difference is reduced when populations of slow hosts are age structured. Demographic competence is generally greater among hosts with populations regulated by survival compared to reproduction, but this difference is smallest among slow life histories and reversed for some pathogens with frequency-dependent transmission. An association between pathogen life history traits and the demographic competence of faster-living hosts also has implications for trade-offs between pathogen virulence and transmissibility. Overall, we demonstrate how host life history traits can help predict wildlife reservoirs of zoonoses and the vulnerability of populations to disease-induced extinction.

宿主生活史和人口统计学通过影响宿主与其病原体共存的能力在宿主-病原体动态中发挥重要作用。我们引入人口统计能力的概念来描述宿主群体维持地方性传染病的能力。具有高人口统计学能力的宿主更有可能成为关键宿主，并构成可能蔓延到其他物种的感染宿主。我们建议宿主生活史的速度将与病原体生活史相互作用以影响人口统计能力。我们的模型表明，慢活宿主（具有高存活率和低招募率）在易感染疾病动态方面比快活宿主（低存活率和高招募率）具有更大的人口统计能力，尽管当慢宿主的种群年龄结构化时，这种差异会减少。与繁殖相比，人口受生存调节的宿主的人口统计学能力通常更高，但这种差异在缓慢的生活史中最小，并且在某些具有频率依赖性传播的病原体中逆转。病原体生活史特征与活得更快的宿主的人口统计能力之间的关联也对病原体毒力和传染性之间的权衡有影响。总的来说，我们展示了宿主生活史特征如何帮助预测野生动物的人畜共患病宿主以及种群对疾病引起的灭绝的脆弱性。但这种差异在缓慢的生命史中最小，并且在某些具有频率依赖性传播的病原体中逆转。病原体生活史特征与活得更快的宿主的人口统计能力之间的关联也对病原体毒力和传播性之间的权衡有影响。总的来说，我们展示了宿主生活史特征如何帮助预测野生动物的人畜共患病宿主以及种群对疾病引起的灭绝的脆弱性。但这种差异在缓慢的生命史中最小，并且在某些具有频率依赖性传播的病原体中逆转。病原体生活史特征与活得更快的宿主的人口统计能力之间的关联也对病原体毒力和传染性之间的权衡有影响。总的来说，我们展示了宿主生活史特征如何帮助预测野生动物的人畜共患病宿主以及种群对疾病引起的灭绝的脆弱性。