We investigate how Amazonian smallholders' land use systems coevolve with household-level demographic factors associated with changing livelihood strategies over the different stages of frontier development. Few micro-level studies have investigated this association, particularly due to the paucity of longitudinal data on cohorts of farm colonist households and plots. Cohort analysis is the only way to depict how the structural conditions affecting individual and household livelihood decisions differ from earlier to later stages of frontier development. Our methodological approach involves a unique dataset, based on a micro-level panel of farm households depicting 25 years of settlement in the municipality of Machadinho, in the Brazilian Amazon. We use descriptive statistics with paired t-tests, land use classification analysis, latent transition analysis, and longitudinal multinomial regressions to understand which cohorts of households thrived or failed and, most importantly, why and when. Splitting the data into panels of settlement cohorts helped us understand the effect of demographic life cycle markers on land use choices over the different stages of frontier development and the ability of farm households to adapt their livelihoods at the frontier over time. We found that, as the colonization frontier integrated into markets, the most successful original settlers were those who diversified their portfolio of capitals and livelihood strategies as a response to new local and regional market conditions. We also found a progressive change from land use systems based on subsistence agriculture to diversified land use systems that combine on- and off-farm activities. Livelihood diversification is key to preventing households from becoming trapped in a long-term deprivation trajectory, particularly when the frontier becomes more urban and market-oriented. This explains why land use has become progressively independent of household demographic dynamics in advanced stages. We contend that, as frontiers integrate into markets, diversification should not only be incentivized, but should also be used as a technical strategy to enhance access to subsidized rural credit, as it seems to increase farmers’ likelihood to thrive and improve their resilience against shocks.

我们研究了亚马逊小农户的土地使用系统如何与边境发展的不同阶段中改变生计策略的家庭人口统计因素一起发展。很少有微观研究研究这种关联，特别是由于缺乏有关农场殖民者家庭和田地的纵向数据。队列分析是描述影响个人和家庭生计决策的结构条件与边境发展的早期到晚期之间如何不同的唯一方法。我们的方法论方法涉及一个独特的数据集，该数据集基于一个微型农户小组，描述了巴西亚马逊马查迪尼奥（Machadinho）市25年的定居历史。我们使用描述性统计数据与配对t检验，土地利用分类分析，潜在的过渡分析和纵向多项式回归，以了解哪些群体兴旺或失败，最重要的是，原因和时间。将数据分为定居人群小组可以帮助我们了解人口统计生命周期标记对边境发展不同阶段的土地使用选择的影响，以及农户随时间推移适应边境生计的能力。我们发现，随着殖民前沿融入市场，最成功的原始定居者是那些为了应对新的地方和区域市场条件而多样化其资本组合和谋生策略的人。我们还发现，从基于生计农业的土地利用系统到结合了农场内和农场外活动的多样化土地利用系统，正在发生逐步的变化。生计多样化对于防止家庭陷入长期贫困的轨道是至关重要的，特别是在边境变得更加城市化和市场化的情况下。这就解释了为什么土地使用在晚期已经逐渐独立于家庭人口动态。我们认为，随着边界整合到市场中，多样化不仅应被激励，而且应被用作增加获得补贴的农村信贷的技术策略，因为这似乎增加了农民蓬勃发展的可能性并增强了抵御冲击的能力。 。这就解释了为什么土地使用在晚期已经逐渐独立于家庭人口动态。我们认为，随着边界整合到市场中，多样化不仅应被激励，而且应被用作增加获得补贴的农村信贷的技术策略，因为这似乎增加了农民蓬勃发展的可能性并增强了抵御冲击的能力。 。这就解释了为什么土地使用在晚期已经逐渐独立于家庭人口动态。我们认为，随着边界整合到市场中，多样化不仅应被激励，而且应被用作增加获得补贴的农村信贷的技术策略，因为这似乎增加了农民蓬勃发展的可能性并增强了抵御冲击的能力。 。