Abstract In this paper, we identify cropping pattern as a major policy variable. A framework for the generation of alternative cropping patterns (ACPs) in arid regions, called ACPAR, is developed for assessing water and food security. ACPAR is applied to the case study of Egypt, for which a simulation-based national water, food, and trade (NWFT) model exists. ACPAR is formulated to minimize the agricultural water demand, food imports, and the economic cost of imports as well as maximize the national gross margin of agriculture. These four objective functions are optimized to generate ACPs that have different tradeoffs. Additional filtering criteria are employed to account for fertilizer use as well as the stability of the set objectives. The ACPs are generated and evaluated for the baseline period (1986-2013) as well as under future conditions up to the year 2050. The results show that ACPAR is useful for proposing ACPs that could have worked better for Egypt during the baseline period, but also ACPs that outperform the historical cropping pattern in each objective function for wide future conditions. Some of the generated future ACPs can perform well regarding irrigation water use and cost of imports, without compromising food self-sufficiency. The quantified tradeoffs between the identified objective functions are the key contributions of this study, representing important information for policymakers to aid in water resources planning. The ACPAR framework connects national water resource management decisions to global food production, consumption, and trade dynamics.

中文翻译：

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ACPAR：将国家水和粮食安全管理与全球条件联系起来的框架

摘要 在本文中，我们将种植模式确定为主要的政策变量。开发了一个用于在干旱地区生成替代种植模式 (ACP) 的框架，称为 ACPAR，用于评估水和粮食安全。ACPAR 应用于埃及的案例研究，其中存在基于模拟的国家水、食品和贸易 (NWFT) 模型。ACPAR 的制定是为了最大限度地减少农业用水需求、粮食进口和进口的经济成本，并最大限度地提高全国农业毛利率。这四个目标函数经过优化以生成具有不同权衡的 ACP。使用额外的过滤标准来说明肥料的使用以及设定目标的稳定性。ACPs 是在基线期（1986-2013 年）以及到 2050 年的未来条件下生成和评估的。 结果表明 ACPAR 可用于提出在基线期对埃及更有效的 ACPs，但在未来广阔的条件下，ACP 在每个目标函数中的表现都优于历史裁剪模式。一些生成的未来 ACP 可以在灌溉用水和进口成本方面表现良好，而不会影响粮食自给自足。确定的目标函数之间的量化权衡是本研究的关键贡献，代表了决策者帮助水资源规划的重要信息。ACPAR 框架将国家水资源管理决策与全球粮食生产、消费和贸易动态联系起来。