ABSTRACT

This study assesses climate change impacts on the hydrological regime of a river basin and its implications for future irrigation water availability in the Koshi River basin using RCPs 4.5 and 8.5 over short-term (2016-2045), mid-century (2036-2065) and end-of-century (2071-2100) periods. Average flow in the Koshi River is projected to increase. Projections of average minimum monthly river flow suggest that the areas of winter wheat and monsoon paddy rice could be increased. However, the planting period of paddy rice should be delayed by one month (July to August) to capture the expected increased water availability in the river.

摘要

本研究使用 RCP 4.5 和 8.5 在短期（2016-2045）、本世纪中叶（2036-2065）评估气候变化对河流流域水文状况的影响及其对科希河流域未来灌溉水可用性的影响和世纪末 (2071-2100) 时期。Koshi 河的平均流量预计会增加。平均每月最低河流流量的预测表明，冬小麦和季风水稻的面积可能会增加。然而，水稻的种植期应推迟一个月（7 月至 8 月），以捕捉河流中预期增加的可用水量。