We employ the approach of Roderick and Farquhar (2011) to assess the sensitivity of runoff (R) given changes in precipitation (P), potential evapotranspiration (E_p), and other properties that change the partitioning of P (n) by estimating coefficients that predict the weight of each variable in the relative change of R. We use this framework using different data sources and products for P, actual evapotranspiration (E), and E_p within the Amazon River basin to quantify the uncertainty of the hydrologic response at the subcatchment scale. We show that when estimating results from the different combinations of datasets for the entire river basin (at Óbidos), a 10% increase in P would increase R on average 16%, while a 10% increase in E_p would decrease R about 6%. In addition, a 10% change in the parameter n would affect the hydrological response of the entire basin around 5%. However, results change from catchment to catchment and are dependent on the combination of datasets. Finally, results suggest that enhanced estimates of E and E_p are needed to improve our understanding of the future scenarios of hydrological sensitivity with implications for the quantification of climate change impacts at the regional (subcatchment and subbasin) scale in Amazonia.

中文翻译：

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亚马逊河流域径流对气候变化敏感性的不确定性

我们采用 Roderick 和 Farquhar (2011) 的方法来评估径流 ( R )的敏感性给定降水 ( P )、潜在蒸散量 ( E _p ) 的变化，以及通过估计系数改变P ( n )分配的其他属性预测每个变量在R的相对变化中的权重。我们使用这个框架对P、实际蒸散量 ( E ) 和E _p使用不同的数据源和产品在亚马逊河流域内量化子汇水面积尺度水文响应的不确定性。我们表明，当估计整个流域（在 Óbidos）不同数据集组合的结果时，P增加10%会使R平均增加16%，而E _p增加 10% 会使R减少约 6% . 此外，参数n的 10% 变化将对整个流域的水文响应影响约 5%。但是，结果因流域而异，并且取决于数据集的组合。最后，结果表明E和E _{p 的}增强估计 需要提高我们对未来水文敏感性情景的理解，这对亚马逊地区区域（子汇水面积和子流域）尺度的气候变化影响的量化有影响。