Abstract The introduction of alien species is one of the main threat to native biodiversity worldwide. The spreading of Rhynchophorus ferrugineus and Paysandisia archon across the Mediterranean basin caused enormous damages to cultivated palms, representing a paradigmatic case of uncontrolled diffusion of invasive alien pests. The infestation of natural populations of Chamaerops humilis, which has a particular conservation relevance being the only native palm species in Western Europe, by the two pests can be a serious threat. Nevertheless, no clear evaluation of this risk is available. I provided a first estimation of the potential geographic extent of this threat, comparing the specific climatic niches of the three species and identifying high-conflict areas and potential refuges for C. humilis through a spatial explicit approach based on niche modeling. I evidenced that the climatic niche of the palm is similar to those of the two pests. This produces frequent co-occurrence of host and pests causing potential high levels of pressure on palm populations. More specifically, R. ferrugineus represents a very widespread threat to palms, with conflict areas in most of the coasts and islands included in the C. humilis distribution. On the contrary, P. archon represents a threat only in the northeastern part of the palm range, and large potential refuges occur in southwestern Iberia, North Africa, and several islands. However, the threat by P. archon can be locally stronger than by R. ferrugineus. Programs of assessment, monitoring, and containment in host-pest conflict areas and measures of protection, prevention, and monitoring in refuge areas could mitigate the threat to C. humilis, avoiding the impact that the same pests have on cultivated palms across Europe.

中文翻译：

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两种外来入侵害虫 Rhynchophorus ferrugineus 和 Paysandisia archon 与地中海扇棕榈本地种群之间的潜在冲突程度

摘要 外来物种的引入是全球本土生物多样性的主要威胁之一。Rhynchophorus ferrugineus 和 Paysandisia archon 在地中海盆地的蔓延对种植的棕榈树造成了巨大破坏，这是外来入侵害虫不受控制扩散的典型案例。两种害虫对 Chamaerops humilis 自然种群的侵染可能是一个严重的威胁，Chamaerops humilis 是西欧唯一的本地棕榈树种，具有特殊的保护意义。然而，没有对这种风险进行明确的评估。我提供了这种威胁的潜在地理范围的初步估计，比较了三个物种的特定气候生态位，并确定了高冲突地区和 C. humilis 通过基于生态位建模的空间显式方法。我证明棕榈树的气候生态位与这两种害虫的气候生态位相似。这会导致寄主和害虫频繁同时发生，从而对棕榈种群造成潜在的高压力。更具体地说，R. ferrugineus 对棕榈树构成了非常广泛的威胁，大多数海岸和岛屿的冲突地区都包括在 C. humilis 分布中。相反，P. archon 仅在棕榈分布区的东北部构成威胁，在伊比利亚西南部、北非和几个岛屿上存在大量潜在的避难所。然而，P. archon 的威胁在局部可能比 R. ferrugineus 更强。宿主-虫害冲突地区的评估、监测和遏制计划以及保护、预防、