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Comparison of heat-illness associations estimated with different temperature metrics in the Australian Capital Territory, 2006–2016
International Journal of Biometeorology ( IF 3.2 ) Pub Date : 2020-11-06 , DOI: 10.1007/s00484-020-01899-9
Samuel Ross McEwen , Marlena Kaczmarek , Rebecca Hundy , Aparna Lal

While the associations of heat with health outcomes is well researched, there is less consensus on the measures used to define heat exposure and the short-term and delayed impacts of different temperature metrics on health outcomes. We investigate the nonlinear and short-term relationship of three temperature metrics and reported incidence of three gastrointestinal illnesses: salmonellosis, campylobacteriosis and cryptosporidiosis in the Australian Capital Territory (ACT). We also examine the nonlinear association of these illnesses with extreme heat (5th, 75th, 90th percentile of all heat measures). Generalized linear models with Poisson regression accounting for overdispersion, seasonal and long-term trend, weekly number of outbreaks and rainfall were developed for mean and maximum weekly temperature and the heat stress index (EHIaccl). Bacterial illnesses (salmonellosis and campylobacteriosis) showed an overall positive association with extreme heat (75th and 90th percentile of all three heat measures) and an inverse association with low temperature (5th percentile). The shape of the exposure-response curve across a range of temperatures and the lagged effects varied for each disease. Modelling the short-term and delayed effects of heat using different metrics across a range of illnesses can help identify the most appropriate measure to inform local public health intervention planning for heat-related emergencies.

中文翻译:

2006 年至 2016 年澳大利亚首都直辖区使用不同温度指标估计的热病关联的比较

虽然对热量与健康结果的关联进行了深入研究,但对用于定义热量暴露的措施以及不同温度指标对健康结果的短期和延迟影响的共识较少。我们调查了三个温度指标的非线性和短期关系,并报告了三种胃肠道疾病的发病率:澳大利亚首都直辖区 (ACT) 的沙门氏菌病、弯曲杆菌病和隐孢子虫病。我们还研究了这些疾病与极端高温(所有高温措施的第 5、75、90 个百分位数)之间的非线性关联。为平均和最高每周温度以及热应激指数 (EHIaccl) 开发了具有泊松回归的广义线性模型,用于考虑过度分散、季节性和长期趋势、每周爆发次数和降雨量。细菌性疾病(沙门氏菌病和弯曲杆菌病)与极端高温(所有三个热度指标的第 75 个和第 90 个百分位)呈总体正相关,而与低温(第 5 个百分位)呈负相关。不同温度范围内的暴露-反应曲线形状和滞后效应因每种疾病而异。使用针对一系列疾病的不同指标对高温的短期和延迟影响进行建模,可以帮助确定最合适的措施,以告知当地针对高温相关紧急情况的公共卫生干预计划。不同温度范围内的暴露-反应曲线形状和滞后效应因每种疾病而异。使用针对一系列疾病的不同指标对高温的短期和延迟影响进行建模,可以帮助确定最合适的措施,以告知当地针对高温相关紧急情况的公共卫生干预计划。不同温度范围内的暴露-反应曲线形状和滞后效应因每种疾病而异。使用针对一系列疾病的不同指标对高温的短期和延迟影响进行建模,可以帮助确定最合适的措施,以告知当地针对高温相关紧急情况的公共卫生干预计划。
更新日期:2020-11-06
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