There is an urgent need to map the geographic location of climate change risks and vulnerability, especially for cities in sub-Saharan Africa, which are experiencing the greatest urban development challenges and vulnerability to climate change impacts. The aim of this study is to investigate current and projected future heat risk, expressed as a heat stress exposure index using high-resolution climate change projections, and a social vulnerability index, to identify areas of potential future heat stress risk in the Durban (eThekwini) metropolitan area, South Africa. Additionally, this is the first study to use high-resolution downscaled climate change projections under Representative Concentration (RCP) 8.5, to construct the heat exposure index using apparent temperature and increases in minimum temperature and a social vulnerability index, using demographic and socio-economic census and land use data to, derived from principal component analysis (PCA) to spatially characterize heat stress within a South African city. Results show that while heat stress is not a current concern, it is projected to increase and become a future concern, mainly as a function of social vulnerability due to household demographic and infrastructural characteristics, and will be experienced in both the rural and inner-city areas of the metro. This study contributes a heat risk framework to identify locations for specific research and adaptation activities on heat stress risk and for urban planning in sub-Saharan African cities, which are characterized by both rural and urban contexts, to address climate change adaptation targeting and priority setting.

中文翻译：

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南非德班都市区气候变化下的热应激风险和脆弱性——确定适应的城市规划优先事项

迫切需要绘制气候变化风险和脆弱性的地理位置图，特别是撒哈拉以南非洲的城市，这些城市正面临着最大的城市发展挑战和气候变化影响的脆弱性。本研究的目的是调查当前和预计的未来热风险，表示为使用高分辨率气候变化预测的热应激暴露指数和社会脆弱性指数，以确定德班未来潜在热应激风险的区域（eThekwini ) 大都市区，南非。此外，这是第一项在代表性浓度 (RCP) 8.5 下使用高分辨率缩减气候变化预测的研究，以使用表观温度和最低温度增加以及社会脆弱性指数构建热暴露指数，使用来自主成分分析 (PCA) 的人口统计和社会经济普查和土地利用数据，对南非城市内的热应力进行空间表征。结果表明，虽然热应激不是当前的问题，但预计会增加并成为未来的问题，主要是由于家庭人口和基础设施特征导致的社会脆弱性，并将在农村和市中心出现地铁的区域。本研究提供了一个热风险框架，以确定在撒哈拉以南非洲城市进行热应激风险和城市规划的具体研究和适应活动的地点，这些城市具有农村和城市背景，以解决气候变化适应目标和优先事项设置.