Process facilities handling hazardous chemicals in large quantities and elevated operating conditions of temperature/pressure are attractive targets to external attacks. The possibility of an external attack on a critical installation, performed with an intention of triggering escalation of primary incidents into secondary and tertiary incidents, thereby increasing the severity of consequences needs to be effectively analysed. A prominent Petrochemical Industry located in Kerala, India was identified for studying the possibility of a deliberately induced domino effect. In this study, a dedicated Bayesian network is developed to model the domino propagation sequence in the chemical storage area of the industry, and to estimate the domino probabilities at different levels. This method has the advantage of accurately quantifying domino occurrence probabilities and identifying possible higher levels of escalations. Moreover, the combined effect from multiple units can be modelled easily and new information can be added into the model as evidences to update the probabilities. Phast (Process hazard analysis) software is used for consequence modelling to determine the impact zones of the identified primary and secondary incidents. The results of the case study show that such analyses can greatly benefit green field and brown field projects in determining the appropriate safety and security measures to be implemented or strengthened so as to reduce its attractiveness to external threat agents.

处理大量危险化学品和升高的温度/压力操作条件的过程设施是外部攻击的诱人目标。为了有效地触发关键事件升级为次要事件和三次事件，从而对关键设备进行外部攻击的可能性，需要进行有效分析。确定了位于印度喀拉拉邦的一个著名的石油化学工业，用于研究故意诱发的多米诺效应的可能性。在这项研究中，开发了专用的贝叶斯网络以对行业化学存储区域中的多米诺骨牌传播序列进行建模，并估计不同级别的多米诺骨牌概率。此方法的优点是可以准确地量化多米诺骨牌出现的概率并确定可能的更高级别的升级。此外，可以轻松地对来自多个单元的综合效果进行建模，并且可以将新信息添加到模型中，以作为更新概率的证据。Phast（过程危害分析）软件用于后果建模，以确定已识别的主要和次要事件的影响范围。案例研究的结果表明，此类分析可以极大地有利于绿地和棕地项目，以确定要实施或加强的适当安全措施，从而降低其对外部威胁因素的吸引力。可以轻松地对来自多个单元的综合效果进行建模，并且可以将新信息添加到模型中，以作为更新概率的证据。Phast（过程危害分析）软件用于后果建模，以确定已识别的主要和次要事件的影响范围。案例研究的结果表明，此类分析可以极大地有利于绿地和棕地项目，以确定要实施或加强的适当安全措施，从而降低其对外部威胁因素的吸引力。可以轻松地对来自多个单元的综合效果进行建模，并且可以将新信息添加到模型中，以作为更新概率的证据。Phast（过程危害分析）软件用于后果建模，以确定已识别的主要和次要事件的影响范围。案例研究的结果表明，此类分析可以极大地有利于绿地和棕地项目，以确定要实施或加强的适当安全措施，从而降低其对外部威胁因素的吸引力。