The purpose of this study is to demonstrate the value of Facebook data in predicting first-time donation behavior. More specifically, we provide evidence that Facebook data can be used as a valuable data source for nonprofit organizations in acquiring new donors. To do so, we evaluate three different dimensionality reduction techniques (i.e., singular value decomposition, non-negative matrix factorization, and latent Dirichlet allocation) over seven classification techniques (i.e., logistic regression, k-nearest neighbors, bagged trees, random forest, adaboost, extreme gradient boosting, and artificial neural networks) using five times twofold cross-validation. Next, we assess what type of Facebook data and which predictors are most important. The results indicate that we can predict first-time donation behavior based on Facebook data with high predictive performance. Our benchmark indicates that the combination of singular value decomposition and logistic regression outperforms all other analytical methodologies with an area under the receiver operating characteristic of 0.72 and a top decile lift of 3.33. The results show that Facebook pages and categories of Facebook pages are the most important data types. The most important predictors are dimensions related to age, education, residence, materialism, responsible consumption, and interest in nonprofits. The presented acquisition models can be used by nonprofit organizations to implement a one-to-one targeted marketing campaign towards Facebook fans. To the best of our knowledge, our study is the first to determine the predictive value of Facebook data for nonprofits in a real-life acquisition context.

这项研究的目的是证明Facebook数据在预测首次捐赠行为中的价值。更具体地说，我们提供的证据表明，Facebook数据可以用作非营利组织获取新捐助者的宝贵数据源。为此，我们对七种分类技术（即逻辑回归，k近邻，袋装树，随机森林， adaboost，极限梯度增强和人工神经网络）使用五次两次交叉验证。接下来，我们评估哪种类型的Facebook数据以及哪些预测指标最为重要。结果表明，我们可以基于具有较高预测性能的Facebook数据来预测首次捐赠行为。我们的基准测试表明，奇异值分解和逻辑回归的组合优于所有其他分析方法，其接收器操作特征下的面积为0.72，最高十分位提升为3.33。结果表明，Facebook页面和Facebook页面类别是最重要的数据类型。最重要的预测因素是与年龄，教育程度，居住地，唯物主义，负责任的消费以及对非营利组织的兴趣有关的维度。非营利组织可以使用提出的收购模型来针对Facebook粉丝实施一对一的定向营销活动。据我们所知，