Publications on temperate deciduous tree refugia in Europe are abundant, but little is known about the patterns of temperate tree refugia in eastern Asia, an area where biodiversity survived Quaternary glaciations and which has the world's most diverse temperate flora. Our goal is to compare climate model simulations with pollen data in order to establish the location of glacial refugia during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM). Limits in which temperate deciduous trees can survive are taken from the literature. The model outputs are first tested for the present by comparing climate models with published modern pollen data. As this method turned out to be satisfactory for the present, the same approach was used for the LGM. Climate model simulations (ECHAM5 T106), statistically further downscaled, are used to infer the temperate deciduous tree distribution during the LGM. These were compared with available fossil temperate tree pollen occurrences. The impact of the LGM on the eastern Asian climate was much weaker than on the European climate. The area of possible tree growth shifts only by about 2^∘ to the south between the present and the LGM. This contributes to explaining the greater biodiversity of forests in eastern Asia compared to Europe. Climate simulations and the available, although fractional, fossil pollen data agree. Therefore, climate estimations can safely be used to fill areas without pollen data by mapping potential refugia distributions. The results show two important areas with population connectivity: the Yellow Sea emerged shelf and the southern Himalayas. These two areas were suitable for temperate deciduous tree growth, providing corridors for population migration and connectivity (i.e. less population fragmentation) in glacial periods. Many tree populations live in interglacial refugia, not glacial ones. The fact that the model simulation for the LGM fits so well with observed pollen distribution is another indication that the model used is good enough to also simulate the LGM period.

中文翻译：

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气候模拟和花粉数据揭示了上一次冰川最大期期间东亚温带树木种群的分布和连通性

欧洲关于温带落叶乔木的文献很多，但对东亚的温带乔木的模式知之甚少，该地区的生物多样性在第四纪冰川时期得以生存，并且拥有世界上最多样化的温带植物区系。我们的目标是将气候模型模拟与花粉数据进行比较，以便确定上次冰期最大值（LGM）期间冰期避难所的位置。从文献中可以得出温带落叶树可以生存的极限。首先通过比较气候模型和已发布的现代花粉数据来测试模型输出。由于目前该方法令人满意，因此对LGM使用了相同的方法。气候模型模拟（ECHAM5 T106），在统计上进一步缩小了比例，用于推断LGM期间的温带落叶树分布。将这些与可用的化石温带树花粉发生率进行了比较。LGM对东亚气候的影响远小于对欧洲气候的影响。可能的树木生长面积仅移位约2^∘在现在与LGM之间的南部。这有助于解释东亚森林比欧洲森林更大的生物多样性。气候模拟和可获得的（尽管是零散的）化石花粉数据是一致的。因此，可以通过绘制潜在避难所分布图来安全地使用气候估算来填充没有花粉数据的区域。结果显示了两个具有人口连通性的重要区域：黄海出现了陆架和喜马拉雅山脉南部。这两个地区适合温带落叶乔木生长，为冰川时期的人口迁移和连通性（即减少人口零散）提供了走廊。许多树木种群生活在冰川间，而不是冰川种群。