This paper examines the impact of Alaska’s Permanent Fund Dividend on crime. The Dividend has been payable annually to state residents since 1982 and is the world’s longest‐running example of a basic income. Initially universal, from 1989 onwards eligibility was withdrawn from an increasing proportion of those in prison. A Bayesian structural time series estimator is used to simulate Alaskan crime rates in the counterfactual no‐Dividend case. A comparison with actual rates provides an estimate of the Dividend’s impact. This does not provide strong evidence of an effect. However, incorporating information on Dividend amounts suggests the size of payments is important, with larger amounts reducing crime. There is no evidence that this effect is reinforced by the 1989 change to eligibility. The results demonstrate the potential for a basic income to encourage positive outcomes and lend support to payment being universal rather than conditional.

中文翻译：

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基本收入对犯罪影响的贝叶斯结构时间序列分析：来自阿拉斯加常设基金的证据*

本文研究了阿拉斯加永久性基金股息对犯罪的影响。自1982年以来，每年就向州居民支付股息，这是世界上运行时间最长的基本收入示例。从1989年起，最初的普及性从监狱中越来越多的人中取消了资格。贝叶斯结构时间序列估计器用于模拟反事实无股息案中的阿拉斯加犯罪率。与实际汇率的比较提供了对股息影响的估计。这不能提供有力的证据。但是，合并有关股息金额的信息表明，付款金额很重要，而较大的金额则可以减少犯罪。没有证据表明1989年对资格的更改会增强这种效果。