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Which heatwave measure has higher predictive power to prevent health risks related to heat: EHF or GATO IV? – Evidence from modelling Lisbon mortality data from 1980 to 2016
Weather and Climate Extremes ( IF 8 ) Pub Date : 2020-10-29 , DOI: 10.1016/j.wace.2020.100287
Liliane Morais , António Lopes , Paulo Nogueira

To prevent the risk associated with heat-related health, several countries and institutions have built heat-health warning systems (HHWS). An HHWS is designed to alert the general public and decision-makers about the danger of high temperature by triggering a series of actions that avoid adverse health outcomes. The comparison of the various HHWS is complicated because there is no universal quantitative definition to predict and define a heatwave. The slightest variability at the threshold of definition the heatwave can trigger considerable differences in the action plan, health service demand and the time the population at risk must prepare. The choice of the index influences the number of days of heatwaves and its characteristics, such as severity. Estimating the risk of mortality associated with heatwave is variable according to the indexes, and the selection of the threshold is essential to prevent the burdens of heat on public health. The aim is the comparison between two metrics to know, which has higher predictive power to prevent health risks related to heat. On the one hand, a new way of defining heatwaves that have generated high consensus worldwide - the Excess Heat Factor (EHF); on the other hand, the Generalized Accumulated Thermal Overload (GATO IV) – an opportunity to improve the existing Lisbon heatwaves surveillance system. Daily mortalities and air temperatures from 1980 to 2016 in Lisbon with both indexes are modelled using Generalized Linear Models, with the calculation of the predictive power of the models using ROC curves for two levels of mortality severity. It is concluded that for total mortality, both indexes were statistically significant. Though, for daily mortality in individuals with 65 years or older with all diseases of the circulatory and respiratory system, when considering both indexes together, GATO IV was the only index significantly predicting the impact of heatwaves on mortality. GATO IV metric seems to have the best statistical properties. Nevertheless, EHF also stands out as a good indicator to predict heat-related mortality in Lisbon.



中文翻译:

哪种热波措施具有较高的预测能力,可以预防与热量有关的健康风险:EHF或GATO IV?– 1980年至2016年里斯本死亡率数据建模的证据

为了防止与热相关的健康相关的风险,一些国家和机构建立了热健康预警系统(HHWS)。HHWS旨在通过触发一系列避免不良健康后果的行动来警告公众和决策者高温的危险。由于没有通用的定量定义来预测和定义热浪,因此各种HHWS的比较非常复杂。在定义的临界点,热浪的微小变化会触发行动计划,医疗服务需求和处于危险之中的人群必须准备的时间的巨大差异。指标的选择会影响热浪的天数及其特征,例如严重性。估计与热浪相关的死亡风险因指标而异,阈值的选择对于防止热量对公共健康的负担至关重要。目的是要比较两个要了解的指标,这些指标具有较高的预测能力,可以预防与热量有关的健康风险。一方面,一种定义热波的新方法已在全球范围内引起了广泛的共识-过量热因子(EHF);另一方面,广义累积热过载(GATO IV)–改善现有里斯本热浪监视系统的机会。使用广义线性模型对1980年至2016年里斯本的每日死亡率和气温进行两项建模,并使用ROC曲线计算死亡率的两个严重程度,以计算模型的预测能力。结论是,对于总死亡率,两个指标均具有统计学意义。虽然,对于65岁及以上患有循环系统和呼吸系统所有疾病的个体的每日死亡率,同时考虑这两个指标时,GATO IV是唯一能显着预测热浪对死亡率影响的指标。GATO IV指标似乎具有最佳的统计属性。尽管如此,EHF还是预测里斯本与热相关的死亡率的良好指标。

更新日期:2020-11-04
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