Abstract This study investigates an outsourcing strategy for a risk-averse decision-maker facing two types of demand and supply uncertainties. The supply uncertainty includes both uncertainty in the rate of capacity allocation in the manufacturer and the uncertainty resulting from disruption risks. In order to capture the geographical characteristics of the suppliers, we assume that the suppliers belong to two different geographical regions: the manufacturer’s region (domestic supplier) and outside of the manufacturer’s region (foreign supplier). We also consider a realistic scenario in which the manufacturer and domestic suppliers might face two types of disruption:(i) local disruption which might occur inside the suppliers or manufacturer’s facility such as disruption in the production line, and (ii) regional disruption which might occur in the region of the domestic supplier and manufacture simultaneously, such as natural hazards. To provide a benchmark, at first, the risk-neutral model is analyzed and then the risk-averse model is developed to consider the risk attitude of the decision-maker. In the latter case, we apply two types of risk evaluation model to analyze the decision maker’s behaviour: value-at-risk ( V a R ) and conditional value-at-risk ( C V a R ). In addition, we solve optimally both risk-neutral and risk-averse models by deriving Karuch-Kuhn–Tucker (K.K.T) optimality condition. Computational examples illustrate the impact of decision-maker attitude on the manufacture’s outsourcing strategy. In addition, the sensitivity of the optimal outsourcing decisions with regards to the important parameters of the model is analyzed.

中文翻译：

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存在供需不确定性的风险规避外包策略

摘要 本研究调查了面临两种需求和供应不确定性的风险规避决策者的外包策略。供应不确定性包括制造商产能分配率的不确定性和中断风险导致的不确定性。为了捕捉供应商的地理特征，我们假设供应商属于两个不同的地理区域：制造商所在地区（国内供应商）和制造商所在地区以外（国外供应商）。我们还考虑了制造商和国内供应商可能面临两种类型中断的现实情况：(i) 可能发生在供应商或制造商设施内部的本地中断，例如生产线中断，(ii) 国内供应商和制造商所在地区可能同时发生的区域中断，例如自然灾害。为了提供基准，首先分析风险中性模型，然后开发风险规避模型以考虑决策者的风险态度。在后一种情况下，我们应用两种类型的风险评估模型来分析决策者的行为：风险价值 (V a R ) 和条件风险价值 ( CV a R )。此外，我们通过推导 Karuch-Kuhn-Tucker (KKT) 最优条件来最优地解决风险中性和风险规避模型。计算实例说明了决策者态度对制造商外包战略的影响。此外，