Statistical models to evaluate the relationships between large-scale meteorological conditions, prevailing air pollution levels and combined ozone and temperature events, were developed during the 1993–2012 period with Central Europe as regional focus. Combined ozone and temperature events were defined based on the high frequency of coinciding, health-relevant elevated levels of daily maximum tropospheric ozone concentrations (based on running 8-h means) and daily maximum temperature values in the peak ozone and temperature season from April to September. By applying two different modeling approaches based on lasso, logistic regression, and multiple linear regression mean air temperatures at 850 hPa, ozone persistence, surface thermal radiation, geopotential heights at 850 hPa, meridional winds at 500 hPa, and relative humidity at 500 hPa were identified as main drivers of combined ozone and temperature events. Statistical downscaling projections until the end of the twenty-first century were assessed by using the output of seven models of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). Potential frequency shifts were evaluated by comparing the mid- (2031–2050) and late-century (2081–2100) time windows to the base period (1993–2012). A sharp increase of ozone-temperature events was projected under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenario assumptions with respective multi-model mean changes of 8.94% and 16.84% as well as 13.33% and 37.52% for mid- and late-century European climate.

中文翻译：

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模拟和预测当前和未来中欧气候中与健康相关的臭氧和温度组合事件

在 1993-2012 年期间，以中欧为区域重点，开发了用于评估大规模气象条件、普遍空气污染水平以及臭氧和温度事件之间关系的统计模型。臭氧和温度组合事件是根据与健康相关的每日最大对流层臭氧浓度升高水平（基于运行 8 小时平均值）和 4 月至 4 月的臭氧和温度峰值季节中的每日最高温度值的高频率来定义的。九月。通过应用基于套索、逻辑回归和多元线性回归的两种不同建模方法，850 hPa 的平均气温、臭氧持续性、地表热辐射、850 hPa 的位势高度、500 hPa 的经向风、和 500 hPa 的相对湿度被确定为臭氧和温度组合事件的主要驱动因素。通过使用耦合模型比对项目第 5 阶段 (CMIP5) 的七个模型的输出，对 21 世纪末之前的统计缩减预测进行了评估。通过将世纪中期（2031-2050 年）和世纪后期（2081-2100 年）时间窗口与基期（1993-2012 年）进行比较，评估了潜在的频移。在 RCP4.5 和 RCP8.5 情景假设下，预测臭氧温度事件急剧增加，分别为 8.94% 和 16.84% 以及本世纪中后期欧洲气候的 13.33% 和 37.52% . 通过使用耦合模型比对项目第 5 阶段 (CMIP5) 的七个模型的输出，对 21 世纪末之前的统计缩减预测进行了评估。通过将世纪中期（2031-2050）和世纪后期（2081-2100）时间窗口与基期（1993-2012）进行比较，评估了潜在的频移。在 RCP4.5 和 RCP8.5 情景假设下，预测臭氧温度事件急剧增加，分别为 8.94% 和 16.84% 以及本世纪中后期欧洲气候的 13.33% 和 37.52% . 通过使用耦合模型比对项目第 5 阶段 (CMIP5) 的七个模型的输出，对 21 世纪末之前的统计缩减预测进行了评估。通过将世纪中期（2031-2050 年）和世纪后期（2081-2100 年）时间窗口与基期（1993-2012 年）进行比较，评估了潜在的频移。在 RCP4.5 和 RCP8.5 情景假设下，预测臭氧温度事件急剧增加，分别为 8.94% 和 16.84% 以及本世纪中后期欧洲气候的 13.33% 和 37.52% .