The number of psychiatric care beds and the mean length of stay in psychiatric care beds in Japan have decreased over the past 10 years. However, as has long been indicated here and elsewhere, Japan lags behind other countries in terms of deinstitutionalization. Furthermore, the population of inpatients in psychiatric care beds is aging dramatically. In addition to the diversification of mental illness, the question of what measures to implement going forward regarding current psychiatric bed resources has emerged as a new challenge. Using data from the Patient Survey and the 630 Survey, we examined trends in the number of long-term inpatients in psychiatric care beds in Japan through 2040. Population estimation was used for estimating long-term hospital bed demand because of small fluctuations in the admission and discharge of long-term inpatients. In 2017, nearly one-third of all long-term hospitalized patients were aged ≥75 years, and an estimated 47% of the total are expected to die by 2040. Thus, the overall demand for long-term hospitalization is forecast to decrease sharply due to aging of currently hospitalized long-term inpatients. The number of long-term inpatients in 2017 was 167,579, and this is projected to decrease to 103,141 in 2040. We believe it is necessary to adopt a multifaceted approach to promote hospital discharge and transition to the community, and to address the diversification of mental illness and the issue of psychiatric care bed supply/availability, which are forecast to decrease due to the natural decrease in long-term inpatients.

中文翻译：

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日本精神科病床的长期住院患者数量：来自患者调查和630调查的趋势分析

在过去的10年中，日本的精神科病床数量和平均住院时间有所减少。但是，正如在这里和其他地方早已表明的那样，日本在去机构化方面落后于其他国家。此外，精神病护理床的住院病人的数量急剧增加。除了精神疾病的多样化以外，对于当前的精神病床资源应采取何种措施来解决这一问题，也成为一个新的挑战。我们使用来自患者调查和630调查的数据，研究了到2040年日本精神病护理床位长期住院患者的数量趋势。由于长期住院病人的入院和出院波动很小，因此使用人口估计数来估计长期的病床需求。2017年，所有长期住院患者中近三分之一年龄≥75岁，预计到2040年将死亡总数的47％。因此，预计长期住院的总体需求将急剧下降由于目前住院的长期住院患者的衰老。2017年的长期住院患者人数为167,579，预计到2040年将减少至103,141。我们认为有必要采取多方面的方法来促进医院出院和向社区过渡，并解决精神病患者的多元化问题。疾病和精神病床供应/可用性的问题，