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Causes of the Widespread 2019–2020 Australian Bushfire Season
Earth's Future ( IF 8.852 ) Pub Date : 2020-11-03 , DOI: 10.1029/2020ef001671
Proloy Deb 1, 2 , Hamid Moradkhani 1, 2 , Peyman Abbaszadeh 1, 2 , Anthony S. Kiem 3 , Johanna Engström 1 , David Keellings 1, 4 , Ashish Sharma 5
Affiliation  

The recent bushfires (2019–2020) in New South Wales (NSW) Australia were catastrophic by claiming human and animal lives, affecting ecosystems, destroying infrastructure, and more. Recent studies have investigated relationships between hydroclimatic signals and past bushfires, and very recently, a few commentary papers claimed drought and fuel moisture content as the probable causes for the widespread 2019–2020 bushfires. Therefore, in this study, a novel work of encompassing a wide range of factors attributing to the recent bushfires is presented. Empirical evidence‐based statistical methods are used to identify the hydroclimatic variables and geomorphic characteristics contributing to the 2019–2020 bushfires. The results highlight that ongoing drought, surface soil moisture (SSM), wind speed (WS10), relative humidity (RH), heat waves (HW), dead and live fuel moisture, and certain land cover types create favorable conditions for fire ignition and aid in fire propagation in different regions of the NSW state. The findings suggest that accounting for the above‐identified variables in bushfire prediction and monitoring system are crucial in avoiding such catastrophes in the future. The overarching application of this study is developing robust and more versatile fire protection planning and management.

中文翻译:

2019–2020年澳大利亚丛林大火季节广泛蔓延的原因

澳大利亚新南威尔士州(NSW)最近的森林大火(2019–2020年)造成了灾难性的后果,夺去了人类和动物的生命,影响了生态系统,破坏了基础设施等等。最近的研究调查了水文气候信号与过去森林大火之间的关系,最近,一些评论文章声称干旱和燃料水分含量是造成2019-2020年森林大火的可能原因。因此,在这项研究中,提出了一项新颖的工作,其中包括了导致近期森林大火的各种因素。基于经验证据的统计方法用于确定导致2019-2020年森林大火的水文气候变量和地貌特征。结果表明,持续干旱,地表土壤湿度(SSM),风速(WS10),相对湿度(RH),热浪(HW),死气和活燃料的水分以及某些土地覆盖类型为火灾点火创造了有利条件,并有助于在新南威尔士州的不同地区进行火灾蔓延。研究结果表明,在丛林大火预测和监测系统中考虑上述变量对于避免将来发生此类灾难至关重要。这项研究的总体应用是开发健壮且用途更广泛的消防计划和管理。
更新日期:2020-11-12
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