Aedes aegypti are feared invasive mosquitoes as they transmit pathogens which cause debilitating diseases in humans. Although mainland Europe has not yet witnessed re-establishment and dispersal of Ae. aegypti populations, several urban areas along coastlines represent suitable habitats for the species. In addition, European coastal areas are characterised by high exotic species propagule pressure, due to dense international ship traffic.

To assess the likelihood of establishment in order to guide surveillance and control planning, we applied a process-based population dynamical model to simulate both the life cycle and dispersal of Ae. aegypti at the local scale after its introduction through ship traffic. We selected five European ports along a latitudinal gradient by considering both environmental conditions and the economical importance of ports: Algeciras and Barcelona in Spain; Venice and Genoa in Italy and Rotterdam in the Netherlands. The model was informed using parameters relevant for Ae. aegypti biology, fine-scale temperature time-series, urban structures and road networks.

According to model results, the introduction of small quantities of Ae. aegypti eggs (10−1000) has the potential to cause species establishment, high local densities and slow initial dispersal in the two southernmost study areas, Algeciras and Barcelona, whereas Genoa is at the edge of suitability. Barcelona had the highest simulated mosquito densities (584 females/ha), whereas Algeciras densities were never more than 32 females/ha, but were higher during the colder seasons. The median spatial spread of the species varied between a few hundred meters to 2 km/year and was affected by the structure of the road network, topography and urban sprawl along the coast in the surrounding of the port of introduction. The study areas of Genoa, Venice and Rotterdam were found not suitable for establishment of this mosquito species, however, climate change could create conditions for Ae. aegypti invasion in these regions in the next decades.

It is commonly accepted that targeted monitoring and early control actions are the most effective methods to hinder the establishment of invasive species in new areas. Our findings and model framework may support surveillance initiatives for those European coastal urban areas which are known to have high propagule pressure and a high modelled probability of Ae. aegypti establishment.

埃及伊蚊（Aedes aegypti）被视为侵入性蚊子，因为它们传播的病原体会导致人类衰弱性疾病。尽管欧洲大陆尚未见证Ae的重建和散布。埃及人种群，沿海岸线的几个市区代表了该物种的合适栖息地。此外，由于密集的国际船舶运输，欧洲沿海地区的特点是外来物种繁殖压力高。

为了评估建立的可能性以指导监视和控制计划，我们应用了基于过程的种群动力学模型来模拟Ae的生命周期和扩散。通过船只运输引入埃及之后，在当地范围内推广埃及埃及。考虑到环境条件和港口的经济重要性，我们沿纬度梯度选择了五个欧洲港口：西班牙的阿尔赫西拉斯和巴塞罗那；威尼斯和意大利的热那亚和荷兰的鹿特丹。使用与Ae有关的参数通知模型。埃及生物学，精细的温度时间序列，城市结构和道路网络。

根据模型结果，引入少量的Ae。埃及鸡蛋（10–1000）有可能在两个最南端的研究区域阿尔盖西拉斯和巴塞罗那造成物种建立，较高的局部密度和较慢的初始扩散，而热那亚处于适宜的边缘。巴塞罗那的模拟蚊子密度最高（584雌/公顷），而阿尔赫西拉斯密度从未超过32雌/公顷，但在寒冷季节更高。该物种的中位空间分布在每年几百米到2公里之间变化，并且受到引入港口周围海岸的路网，地形和城市蔓延结构的影响。热那亚，威尼斯和鹿特丹的研究区域被发现不适合建立这种蚊子，但是，气候变化可能会为Ae创造条件。埃及 在接下来的几十年中，这些地区的入侵。

人们普遍认为，有针对性的监测和早期控制行动是阻碍在新地区建立入侵物种的最有效方法。我们的发现和模型框架可能会支持对那些具有很高的传播压力和较高的Ae建模概率的欧洲沿海城市地区进行监视。埃及建立。