Salt marshes and their inhabitants are being displaced by climate change and human development along the coastline. One inhabitant, the ribbed mussel (Geukensia demissa), forms a mutualistic relationship with smooth cordgrass, Sporobolus alterniflorus, along the US Atlantic Coast. Ribbed mussels stabilize the marsh, remove particulate matter from the water column, and promote denitrification, thereby improving local water quality. To quantify the potential effects of SLR on ribbed mussel abundance and resulting impacts on water quality functions, we compared the current and projected future (2050) spatial distributions of ribbed mussels in Chesapeake Bay assuming an intermediate SLR for the region. We found that ribbed mussel abundance was reduced by more than half due to a combination of drowning marshes, coastal squeeze, and a shift from higher to lower quality habitat. Mussel losses were greatest along the mainstem of the Chesapeake Bay, with modest gains in the headwaters. Our results highlight the importance of permeable land cover (including living shorelines) in the future tidal extent to promote marsh transgression for future mussel populations. The projected mussel abundance reductions will result in a > 50% reduction in mussel-mediated filtration and nitrogen processing, ultimately reducing the resilience of marshes in the system.

盐沼及其居民正因气候变化和沿海岸线的人类发展而流离失所。一个居民，肋纹贻贝（Geukensia demissa），与光滑的草，Sporobolus alterniflorus形成了相互关系。，位于美国大西洋沿岸。罗纹贻贝稳定了沼泽，从水柱中除去了颗粒物，并促进了反硝化作用，从而改善了当地的水质。为了量化单反对肋纹贻贝丰度的潜在影响以及对水质功能的影响，我们比较了切萨皮克湾肋纹贻贝的当前和未来（2050年）空间分布，并假设该区域为中等单反。我们发现肋mar贻贝的丰度下降了一半以上，原因是沼泽淹没，沿海挤压以及栖息地从高品质向低品质的转变。在切萨皮克湾的中部，贻贝损失最大，上游水域则有少量损失。我们的结果强调了在未来的潮汐范围内，可渗透的土地覆盖物（包括活的海岸线）对于促进贻贝越境转移沼泽的重要性。预计的贻贝丰度降低将导致贻贝介导的过滤和氮气处理降低> 50％，最终降低系统中沼泽的弹性。