Using annual data from 1978 through 2016, and monthly data from January 2005 through November 2017 from Denmark, we provide a precise estimate of the upper bound on the potential impact of the adoption of wind energy on the reduction of ${\text{CO}}_2$ emissions from energy production. We separate causal impacts from endogenous effects in regressions using instrumental variables including average wind speed, and from spurious effects in dynamic systems using impulse‐response analysis and cointegration techniques. A one percentage point increase in the share of wind in total energy production is found to cause a reduction in ${\text{CO}}_2$ emissions of the order 0.3%, based on endogeneity‐corrected regression, and 0.5% over 2 years in a fractional vector error‐correction model, after allowing the cumulative effects to take place. This corresponds to an upper bound estimate of 0.69 tonnes of ${\text{CO}}_2$ emissions avoided per additional MWh of wind energy produced. We find that after a structural break at the time of introduction of the EU ETS and the Kyoto Protocol in 2005, the country has been on track towards meeting its long‐term goals for emission reduction and green energy production, but not before.

中文翻译：

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衡量丹麦清洁能源生产对二氧化碳减排的影响：上限估计和预测*

我们使用1978年至2016年的年度数据以及丹麦2005年1月至2017年11月的月度数据，精确估算了采用风能对减少温室气体排放量的潜在影响的上限。 ${\text{一氧化碳}}_2$能源生产产生的排放。我们使用包括平均风速在内的工具变量将因果影响与内源性影响进行了回归，而使用冲激响应分析和协整技术则将动态系统中的因果关系进行了影响。发现风能在总能源生产中所占份额增加1个百分点会导致${\text{一氧化碳}}_2$在允许累积效应发生之后，根据内生性校正回归，在分数矢量误差校正模型中，排放量为0.3％，在两年内为0.5％。这对应于0.69吨${\text{一氧化碳}}_2$产生的每兆瓦时风能可避免排放。我们发现，在2005年引入欧盟ETS和《京都议定书》时出现了结构性断裂之后，该国一直在朝着实现其减少排放和绿色能源生产的长期目标前进，但从未如此。