Abstract A framework is proposed for the probabilistic estimation of yearly economic losses due to fire in concrete building structures. The fire loss estimation accounts for the uncertainties in the occurrence and growth of a fire as well as the response of the building. The assessment performs a fire hazard analysis, response analysis, damage analysis, and loss analysis. The response analysis relies on three-dimensional finite element modeling of the building structure. The expected direct loss for the building is determined by summing the expected losses under fires in different locations, weighted by the annual probabilities of fire occurrence in each location. To achieve this goal, we propose fire-specific engineering demand parameters (EDP) that are measurable and associated with damage states. One EDP addresses section damage due to temperature penetration, while a second EDP addresses component damage linked to deformations. We also define a set of fragility functions and consequence functions based on the selected damage states. The presented framework is applied to a case study of a five-story reinforced concrete frame building. Direct losses are evaluated at about 188 k$ for scenarios of single-compartment fire, conditional to the occurrence of severe fire. Losses are mostly related to nonstructural components and content. Although the case study focuses on single-compartment fires, losses in case of fire spreading within the building can be incorporated as well using event tree analysis with the conditional probability of the respective fire scenarios. The yearly fire loss framework presented in this paper can be adopted for other types of buildings and can be integrated into the workflow for the hazard vulnerability assessment of a community.

中文翻译：

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混凝土建筑结构中概率火灾损失估计的框架

摘要 提出了一个框架，用于对混凝土建筑结构中火灾造成的年度经济损失进行概率估计。火灾损失估算考虑了火灾发生和发展以及建筑物反应的不确定性。评估执行火灾危险分析、响应分析、损坏分析和损失分析。响应分析依赖于建筑结构的三维有限元建模。建筑物的预期直接损失是通过将不同地点火灾下的预期损失相加来确定的，并由每个地点每年发生火灾的概率加权。为了实现这一目标，我们提出了可测量且与损坏状态相关的特定火灾工程需求参数 (EDP)。一个 EDP 解决因温度渗透导致的截面损坏，而第二个 EDP 解决与变形相关的部件损坏。我们还根据选定的损坏状态定义了一组脆弱性函数和后果函数。所提出的框架应用于一个五层钢筋混凝土框架建筑的案例研究。以发生严重火灾为条件，单隔间火灾情况下的直接损失估计约为 188 k$。损失主要与非结构成分和内容有关。尽管案例研究侧重于单隔间火灾，但也可以使用事件树分析和相应火灾场景的条件概率来合并火灾在建筑物内蔓延的损失。