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Modelling and forecasting roots & tubers losses and resulting water losses in sub-Saharan Africa considering climate variables
Physics and Chemistry of the Earth, Parts A/B/C ( IF 3.7 ) Pub Date : 2020-10-31 , DOI: 10.1016/j.pce.2020.102952
Harold L. Feukam Nzudie , Xu Zhao , Martin R. Tillotson , Fei Zhang , Yiping Li

The implications of climate change coupled with anthropogenic activity on water resources have caused great concern, particularly in areas vulnerable to water stress such as sub-Saharan Africa. We focused on the future magnitude of food loss (FL) in African regions, using an ARIMAX model to fit and forecast roots & tubers (R&T) losses of five major crops cultivated in Africa regions, including cassava, potato, sweet potato, yam, and “other” roots & tubers. The forecast was done up to 2025 under the influence of five exogenous variables, namely, gross domestic product, harvested area, precipitation, temperature, and food production. In addition, the future crop water requirement (CWR) of production under climatic variables, and the associated water loss embodied in FL were quantified by means of CROPWAT 8.0. Our findings showed that in 2025 the magnitude of FL is expected to increase by 19.06%, 104.78%, and 27.72% at 2013 levels for East Africa, Middle, and West Africa, respectively. Under future climate the CWR of the selected crops is expected to be higher in West Africa (1790.24 m3/tonne), than in East (989.03 m3/tonne), and Middle Africa (903.64 m3/tonne). The future water loss embodied in FL is expected to be 114.37, 112.80, and 12.06 m3/cap/yr for the West, Middle, and East Africa regions, respectively. Our results show that measures aimed at preventing FL will also alleviate pressure on available water resources.



中文翻译:

考虑气候变量,对撒哈拉以南非洲的根和块茎损失以及由此造成的水损失进行建模和预测

气候变化的影响以及人为活动对水资源的影响引起了人们的极大关注,特别是在撒哈拉以南非洲等易受水资源压力影响的地区。我们使用ARIMAX模型拟合并预测了非洲地区种植的五种主要农作物的根与块茎(R&T)损失,其中包括木薯,马铃薯,红薯,山药,和“其他”块根和块茎。预测是在五个外生变量的影响下完成的,直到2025年,这五个变量是国内生产总值,收获面积,降水,温度和粮食产量。此外,通过CROPWAT 8.0对气候变量下未来作物的需水量(CWR)以及在FL中体现的相关水分损失进行了量化。我们的研究结果表明,到2025年,东非,中非和西非的FL量预计将分别以2013年的水平增长19.06%,104.78%和27.72%。在未来气候下,西非某些作物的CWR预计会更高(1790.24 m3 /吨),比东部(989.03 m 3 /吨)和中非(903.64 m 3 /吨)高。在西非,中非和东非地区,佛罗里达州未来的水损失预计分别为每年114.37、112.80和12.06 m 3 / cap。我们的结果表明,旨在预防FL的措施也将缓解对可用水资源的压力。

更新日期:2020-12-09
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