异构风险感知对信息传播，行为改变和疾病传播的影响,Physical Review E

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异构风险感知对信息传播，行为改变和疾病传播的影响
Physical Review E ( IF 2.4 ) Pub Date : 2020-10-30 , DOI: 10.1103/physreve.102.042314
Yang Ye , Qingpeng Zhang , Zhongyuan Ruan , Zhidong Cao , Qi Xuan , Daniel Dajun Zeng

出于对风险感知和行为变化的个体差异在人们对传染病暴发（特别是持续的COVID-19大流行）的反应中的重要性的推动，我们提出了一种异质性的疾病-行为-信息传播模型，其中人们的感染风险为受信息传播，行为改变和疾病传播的影响。我们同时使用均值场近似和蒙特卡洛模拟来分析模型的动力学。信息传播通过使人们意识到疾病并采取自我保护措施来影响行为改变，并随后通过改变实际感染率来影响疾病传播。结果表明：（a）意识在流行病预防中起着核心作用，

{[R}_{0}

有无无症状感染的病例对流行病的爆发有不同的影响，并且（d）社会对行为改变的影响可以显着减小流行病的爆发规模。这项研究表明，媒体和舆论领袖不应该低估疾病的传播性和严重性，以确保人们意识到这种疾病并采取自我保护措施来保护自己和整个人口。

"点击查看英文标题和摘要"

Effect of heterogeneous risk perception on information diffusion, behavior change, and disease transmission

Motivated by the importance of individual differences in risk perception and behavior change in people's responses to infectious disease outbreaks (particularly the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic), we propose a heterogeneous disease-behavior-information transmission model, in which people's risk of getting infected is influenced by information diffusion, behavior change, and disease transmission. We use both a mean-field approximation and Monte Carlo simulations to analyze the dynamics of the model. Information diffusion influences behavior change by allowing people to be aware of the disease and adopt self-protection and subsequently affects disease transmission by changing the actual infection rate. Results show that (a) awareness plays a central role in epidemic prevention, (b) a reasonable fraction of overreacting nodes are needed in epidemic prevention (c) the basic reproduction number

R_{0}

has different effects on epidemic outbreak for cases with and without asymptomatic infection, and (d) social influence on behavior change can remarkably decrease the epidemic outbreak size. This research indicates that the media and opinion leaders should not understate the transmissibility and severity of diseases to ensure that people become aware of the disease and adopt self-protection to protect themselves and the whole population.

更新日期：2020-10-30

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