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Asynchronous hydroclimatic modelling for the construction of physically based streamflow projections in a context of observation scarcity
Frontiers in Earth Science ( IF 2.9 ) Pub Date : 2020-10-29
Simon Ricard, Jean-Daniel Sylvain, François Anctil

Asynchronous hydroclimatic modelling is proposed for the construction of physically based streamflow projections over regions characterized by meteorological observation scarcity. The novel approach circumvents the requirement for meteorological observations by 1) calibrating quantile mapping transfer functions simultaneously to the parameters of the hydrologic model, 2) forcing the hydrologic model with post-processed climate simulations, and 3) intentionally ignoring the correlation between simulated streamflow values and observations. As a result, relative humidity, solar radiation and wind speed are integrated to a full hydroclimatic modelling chain, allowing the construction of streamflow projections forcing the Penman-Montheith reference evapotranspiration formulation over a forested catchment that flows into the St-Lawrence River, Canada. Results confirm a more accurate simulated hydrological response relative to a conventional hydroclimatic modelling chain employing reanalyses as description of the climate system. They also highlight the contribution to uncertainty in streamflow projections from biased climate variables issued by the reanalyses. The suggested framework assumes the hydrologic regime as a functional proxy to corresponding climate drivers. We believe the latter opens promising perspectives in the scope of producing more reliable estimations of water-related and energy-driven processes such as streamflow generation, snow accumulation and melt, river ice jams, water temperature, or vegetation growth under evolving climate conditions.



中文翻译:

在观测稀缺情况下基于物理的流量预测的异步水文气候模拟

提出了异步水文气候模型,用于在以气象观测稀缺为特征的区域上构建基于物理的水流投影。这种新颖的方法通过以下方式规避了气象观测的需求:1)同时将分位数制图传递函数校准到水文模型的参数,2)强制对水文模型进行后处理的气候模拟,以及3)有意忽略模拟流量值之间的相关性和观察。结果,相对湿度,太阳辐射和风速被整合到完整的水文气候模拟链中,从而允许构建流量预测,迫使Penman-Montheith参考蒸散量公式公式化到流入加拿大圣劳伦斯河的森林集水区。结果证实,相对于采用重新分析作为气候系统描述的常规水文气候模拟链而言,模拟水文响应更为准确。他们还强调了再分析所产生的有偏差的气候变量对流量预测不确定性的贡献。建议的框架假设水文体制是相应气候驱动因素的功能替代。我们认为,后者在对水相关和能源驱动的过程进行更可靠的估计(例如水流产生,积雪和融化,河冰阻塞,水温或气候条件不断变化的植被生长)方面开辟了广阔的前景。

更新日期:2020-10-30
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