Abstract Seismotectonic processes of the Shillong Plateau (SP) have been influenced by the Himalayan orogeny, the India-Burmese subduction, and the Bengal Basin evolution leading to high seismic activity in the region. With a goal of assessing seismic hazards in the SP and providing a scientific information to engineering and disaster risk management communities, a probabilistic seismic hazard analysis is employed to determine hazard in highly-populated districts of SP and particularly in Shillong, Nongpoh, and Tura cities, located within the districts. This analysis is based on the use of historical and instrumentally recorded regional earthquakes since 1411 and deals with uncertainties related to earthquake magnitudes, rupture locations, and the frequency of ground motion exceedance. Individual hazard curves indicate that the Barapani fault possesses the highest frequency of seismic hazard for Shillong city and Nongpoh, and the Eocene hinge zone and Dauki faults are responsible for the highest frequency of seismic hazard at Tura. The results of the hazard assessment together with those obtained earlier using a scenario-based approach demonstrate that although the Oldham fault located near Tura can produce a great, but rare earthquake, few other nearby faults are capable of producing smaller magnitude events with a higher probability of occurrence.

中文翻译：

---

使用概率方法对西隆高原进行地震灾害评估

摘要 西隆高原（SP）的地震构造过程受到喜马拉雅造山运动、印缅俯冲和孟加拉盆地演化的影响，导致该地区地震活动频繁。为了评估 SP 中的地震灾害并向工程和灾害风险管理社区提供科学信息，采用概率地震灾害分析来确定 SP 人口稠密地区的灾害，特别是在西隆、农保和图拉市，位于区内。该分析基于使用自 1411 年以来的历史和仪器记录的区域地震，并处理与地震震级、破裂位置和地震动超出频率相关的不确定性。个别灾害曲线表明，Barapani断层对西隆市和Nongpoh具有最高的地震危险性，始新世铰链带和Dauki断层对Tura的地震危险性最高。危险评估的结果以及之前使用基于情景的方法获得的结果表明，虽然位于图拉附近的奥尔德姆断层可以产生大而罕见的地震，但附近的其他断层很少能够以更高的概率产生较小的震级事件的发生。