ABSTRACT

A novel approach is proposed for the reliability estimation of jacket-type offshore platforms excited by dynamic loadings (wave and seismic) applied in time domain. The information on risk is extracted with the help of multiple finite element-based deterministic analyses. This feature is expected to be attractive to practitioners for routine applications without advanced expertise in the risk-based design concept. It will also be of interest to researchers since the proposed concept innovatively integrates several advanced mathematical concepts, including the extensively modified response surface method, advanced factorial design schemes, Kriging, and other techniques producing compounding beneficial effects. For verification, an operating platform is excited by multiple time histories of wave and seismic loadings generated using current design guidelines. The probabilities of failure of the platform are estimated for both the strength and serviceability performance functions using about 200 deterministic analyses. The results are successfully verified using 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations.

摘要

提出了一种新的方法，用于时域应用的动态载荷（波浪和地震）激发的导管架式海上平台的可靠性估计。风险信息是在多个基于有限元的确定性分析的帮助下提取的。对于在基于风险的设计概念方面没有高级专业知识的常规应用程序的从业者来说，这一特性预计将具有吸引力。由于提出的概念创新地整合了几个先进的数学概念，包括广泛修改的响应面法、先进的因子设计方案、克里金法和其他产生复合有益效果的技术，因此研究人员也将对此感兴趣。为了验证，使用当前设计指南生成的波浪和地震载荷的多个时间历史会激发操作平台。使用大约 200 个确定性分析来估计平台的强度和适用性性能函数的故障概率。使用 10,000 次蒙特卡罗模拟成功验证了结果。