In spring 2011, an unprecedented flood hit the complex eastern United States (U.S.)–Canada transboundary Lake Champlain–Richelieu River (LCRR) Basin, destructing properties and inducing negative impacts on agriculture and fish habitats. The damages, covered by the Governments of Canada and the U.S., were estimated to C$90M. This natural disaster motivated the study of mitigation measures to prevent such disasters from reoccurring. When evaluating flood risks, long‐term evolving climate change should be taken into account to adopt mitigation measures that will remain relevant in the future. To assess the impacts of climate change on flood risks of the LCRR basin, three bias‐corrected multi‐resolution ensembles of climate projections for two greenhouse gas concentration scenarios were used to force a state‐of‐the‐art, high‐resolution, distributed hydrological model. The analysis of the hydrological simulations indicates that the 20‐year return period flood (corresponding to a medium flood) should decrease between 8% and 35% for the end of the 21st Century (2070–2099) time horizon and for the high‐emission scenario representative concentration pathway (RCP) 8.5. The reduction in flood risks is explained by a decrease in snow accumulation and an increase in evapotranspiration expected with the future warming of the region. Nevertheless, due to the large climate inter‐annual variability, short‐term flood probabilities should remain similar to those experienced in the recent past.

中文翻译：

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不断变化的气候条件会增加美国-加拿大跨界黎塞留河流域发生洪灾的风险吗？

2011年春季，史无前例的洪水袭击了美国东部-加拿大跨界的尚普兰湖-黎刹留河（LCRR）流域，破坏了土地属性，并对农业和鱼类栖息地产生了负面影响。加拿大和美国政府承担的损失估计为9000万加元。这场自然灾害促使人们研究缓解措施，以防止此类灾害再次发生。在评估洪灾风险时，应考虑长期变化的气候变化，以采取缓解措施，这些措施在将来仍然适用。为了评估气候变化对LCRR盆地洪灾风险的影响，我们针对两种温室气体浓度情景使用了三个经气候偏差校正的多分辨率综合天气预报，以强制实施最先进的高分辨率，分布式水文模型。对水文模拟的分析表明，在21世纪末（2070-2099）的时间范围和高排放的20年回归期洪水（相当于中等洪水）应减少8％至35％。情景代表集中路径（RCP）8.5。洪水风险的降低可以解释为随着该地区未来变暖，积雪减少和蒸散量增加。然而，由于气候年际变化较大，短期洪水概率应保持与最近的相似。对水文模拟的分析表明，在21世纪末（2070-2099）的时间范围和高排放的20年回归期洪水（相当于中等洪水）应减少8％至35％。情景代表集中路径（RCP）8.5。洪水风险的降低可以解释为随着该地区未来变暖，积雪减少和蒸散量增加。然而，由于气候年际变化较大，短期洪水概率应保持与最近的相似。对水文模拟的分析表明，在21世纪末（2070-2099）的时间范围和高排放的20年回归期洪水（相当于中等洪水）应减少8％至35％。情景代表集中路径（RCP）8.5。洪水风险的降低可以解释为随着该地区未来变暖，积雪减少和蒸散量增加。然而，由于气候年际变化较大，短期洪水概率应保持与最近的相似。洪水风险的降低可以解释为随着该地区未来变暖，积雪减少和蒸散量增加。然而，由于气候年际变化较大，短期洪水概率应保持与最近的相似。洪水风险的降低可以解释为随着该地区未来变暖，积雪减少和蒸散量增加。然而，由于气候年际变化较大，短期洪水概率应保持与最近的相似。