Abstract Forest cover has decreased dramatically in Southeast Asia over the last decades. Understanding the drivers behind these changes is critical to predict changes and minimise their adverse effects. The objectives of the present study were to provide accurate estimates of forest gains and losses in each country of Southeast Asia, and to test the hypothesis that changes in forest cover are linked to national socioeconomic changes. Temporal changes in forest cover were quantified in eleven countries using mid-resolution land cover data. Decline in forest cover between 1992 and 2018 varied considerably among countries with evidence of reforestation in some countries during the last few years. Some countries showed a positive relationship between GDP and forest cover changes while others showed a negative relationship. Some countries were synchronised, particularly Indonesia and Malaysia where forest conversion predominantly involved agricultural lands. A contrast among these countries was also shown by examining the lands converted from and to forests. The present study supports the hypothesis that changes in forest cover is, at least in part, driven by socioeconimic changes and suggests that future changes in forest cover in Southeast Asia will be determined by countries with important agroforestry sectors.

中文翻译：

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东南亚 27 年来的森林得失：重新造林的缓慢趋同

摘要 在过去的几十年中，东南亚的森林覆盖率急剧下降。了解这些变化背后的驱动因素对于预测变化并尽量减少其不利影响至关重要。本研究的目的是准确估计东南亚每个国家的森林收益和损失，并检验森林覆盖变化与国家社会经济变化有关的假设。使用中等分辨率的土地覆盖数据对 11 个国家的森林覆盖的时间变化进行了量化。1992 年至 2018 年间森林覆盖率的下降在过去几年一些国家有重新造林证据的国家之间差异很大。一些国家的 GDP 与森林覆盖变化呈正相关，而另一些国家则呈负相关。一些国家是同步的，特别是印度尼西亚和马来西亚，它们的森林转化主要涉及农田。通过检查从森林转化为森林的土地，也显示了这些国家之间的对比。本研究支持森林覆盖变化至少部分是由社会经济变化驱动的假设，并表明东南亚森林覆盖的未来变化将由拥有重要农林业部门的国家决定。