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Regional flood frequency analysis and uncertainties: Maximum streamflow estimates in ungauged basins in the region of Lavras, MG, Brazil
Catena ( IF 6.2 ) Pub Date : 2020-10-20 , DOI: 10.1016/j.catena.2020.104970
Gabriela Rezende de Souza , Venkatesh Merwade , Luiz Fernando Coutinho de Oliveira , Marcelo Ribeiro Viola , Matheus de Sá Farias

Regionalization techniques are an important alternative to overcome the scarcity of streamflow data and to provide adequate estimates for flood management. This work aims to generate a maximum streamflow regional function and evaluate the uncertainties in estimates for a basin in the South of Minas Gerais, Brazil. Six streamflow gauging stations, that presented stationarity and no trends according to the Mann-Kendal test, were used to develop the regional function by the dimensionless curve method. The annual maximum streamflow series were adjusted to the probability density functions (PDFs) 2-parameter Log-Normal, 3-paramenter Log-Normal, Gumbel, and Gamma. Then, the goodness-of-fit of the PDFs was verified by the Anderson-Darling test. For the regional analysis, heterogeneity and discordancy measures verified the homogeneity of the region, and the jack-knifing technique evaluated the predictive performance of the regional function by the coefficient c of Camargo and Sentelhas. The uncertainty analysis for at-site and regional function estimates was assessed by Monte Carlo simulations and bootstrapping. The performance of the regional function was classified as optimum for most of the watersheds, but as good when considering the prediction in certain return periods. The uncertainties were larger in ungauged basins, especially for greater return periods and drainage areas. The regional function developed can be employed in ungauged sites, but also to improve data in poorly monitored watersheds. Thus, this study demonstrates the adequate applicability of regionalization in ungauged watersheds and provides a simple alternative for maximum streamflow estimates in order to promote sustainable flood risk management.



中文翻译:

区域洪水频率分析和不确定性:巴西MG拉夫拉斯地区未开凿盆地的最大流量估计

区域化技术是克服流量数据稀缺性并为洪水管理提供足够估计的一种重要替代方法。这项工作旨在产生最大的水流区域函数,并评估巴西米纳斯吉拉斯州南部流域的估算不确定性。根据Mann-Kendal检验,六个流量测量站表现出平稳性,没有趋势,被用于通过无量纲曲线法来开发区域函数。将年度最大流量序列调整为概率密度函数(PDF),即2参数对数正态,3参数对数正态,Gumbel和Gamma。然后,通过Anderson-Darling检验验证了PDF的拟合优度。对于区域分析,异质性和不一致性措施验证了该区域的同质性,千斤顶刀技术通过Camargo和Sentelhas的系数c评估了区域函数的预测性能。现场和区域功能估计的不确定性分析通过蒙特卡洛模拟和自举法进行评估。对于大多数流域,该区域函数的性能被归类为最佳,但在某些回归期中考虑该预测时,其性能则为良好。未开垦盆地的不确定性更大,尤其是在较大的回水期和流域。所开发的区域功能可用于未开垦的地点,但也可用于改善对监测不良的流域的数据。从而,

更新日期:2020-10-30
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