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A hundred years of Caposele spring discharge measurements: trends and statistics for understanding water resource availability under climate change
Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment ( IF 4.2 ) Pub Date : 2020-10-29 , DOI: 10.1007/s00477-020-01908-8
G. Leone , M. Pagnozzi , V. Catani , G. Ventafridda , L. Esposito , F. Fiorillo

The 100 year discharge series of the Caposele karst spring in southern Italy enables insight into variations in water resource availability under climate change, given the length of the series, the systematic quality of the records and the absence of human-made alteration of the natural conditions of the aquifer. With this scope, frequency and trend analyses of hydro-meteorological variables were conducted. Various three-parameter probability distribution functions were fitted to the data to calculate the Standardized Discharge Index, which describes spring discharge variations in a standardized manner. Common goodness-of-fit tests were applied to evaluate the performance of each distribution. In addition, a new criterion based on the frequency of events exceeding specific extreme Z values is proposed to quantify the deviation of the calculated index from the theoretical Standard Normal Distribution. The Weibull distribution was found to be best for calculating standardized series of spring discharge as it fits the extreme values of both tails well. The relationship between spring discharge and climatic variables was investigated by using least square linear regression, Mann–Kendall and Sen’s slope trend detection tests, applied to the entire series and to 30-year moving time series. A statistically significant decrease of spring discharge of −0.0045 m3 s–1/year has occurred over the last 100 years, whereas no statistically significant trends were found in annual or seasonal precipitation series. However, temperature has constantly been above the mean during the past two decades. An analysis of trends in the moving time series of all variables suggests a connection between the observed spring discharge decay and temperature increase, which can be considered common to other areas of central-southern Italy.



中文翻译:

Caposele泉水排放量的一百年测量:趋势和统计数据,用于了解气候变化下的水资源可用性

考虑到序列的长度,记录的系统质量以及没有人为改变自然条件的情况,意大利南部Caposele喀斯特温泉的100年排放序列使人们能够洞悉气候变化下水资源的可用性。含水层。在此范围内,进行了水文气象变量的频率和趋势分析。将各种三参数概率分布函数拟合到数据,以计算标准化排放指数,该指数以标准化方式描述了弹簧排放的变化。通用拟合优度检验用于评估每个分布的性能。此外,基于事件频率超过特定极限Z的新标准建议使用数值来量化计算的指数与理论标准正态分布的偏差。我们发现,威布尔分布最适合计算标准的弹簧流量系列,因为它很好地拟合了两条尾巴的极值。通过使用最小二乘线性回归,Mann-Kendall和Sen的斜率趋势检测测试,研究了春季排放量与气候变量之间的关系,并将其应用于整个序列和30年的移动时间序列。统计上显着减少了–0.0045 m 3  s –1的弹簧排量在过去的100年中,年均发生了/年,而在年度或季节降水序列中没有发现统计学上的显着趋势。但是,过去二十年来,温度一直高于平均水平。对所有变量的移动时间序列趋势进行的分析表明,观测到的弹簧排量衰减与温度升高之间存在联系,这可以认为是意大利中南部的其他地区所共有的。

更新日期:2020-10-30
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