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Spatiotemporal Trend Analysis of Precipitation Extremes in Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam During 1980–2017
International Journal of Disaster Risk Science ( IF 4 ) Pub Date : 2020-10-30 , DOI: 10.1007/s13753-020-00311-9
Nguyen Trong Quan , Dao Nguyen Khoi , Nguyen Xuan Hoan , Nguyen Ky Phung , Thanh Duc Dang

In this study, the spatiotemporal variability of trends in extreme precipitation events in Ho Chi Minh City during the period 1980–2017 was analyzed based on several core extreme precipitation indices (Rx1day, Rx5day, CDD, CWD, R20mm, R25mm, R95p, and SDII). The non-parametric Mann–Kendall and Sen’s slope methods were used to compute the statistical strength, stability, and magnitude of trends in annual rainfall, as well as the extreme precipitation indices. We found that 64% of the stations had statistically significant upward trends in yearly rainfall, with high magnitudes frequently observed in the northern and southern regions of the city. For the extreme precipitation indices, only SDII and R25mm showed dominantly significant trends. Additionally, there were increasing trends in the frequency and duration at the southern and central regions of the city during the study period. Furthermore, El Niño-Southern Oscillation and Pacific Decadal Oscillation positively correlated with the duration and negatively correlated with the intensity and frequency of extreme precipitation. Thus, water management plans should be adjusted appropriately to reduce the severe impacts of precipitation extremes on communities and ecosystems.



中文翻译:

越南胡志明市1980-2017年极端降水的时空趋势分析

在这项研究中,基于几个核心极端降水指数(Rx1day,Rx5day,CDD,CWD,R20mm,R25mm,R95p和SDII)分析了1980-2017年期间胡志明市极端降水事件趋势的时空变化。 )。非参数Mann-Kendall和Sen的斜率方法用于计算统计强度,稳定性,年降水量趋势的大小以及极端降水指数。我们发现,有64%的气象站的年降水量具有统计学上的显着上升趋势,并且在该城市的北部和南部地区经常观测到很高的幅度。对于极端降水指数,只有SDII和R25mm表现出显着的显着趋势。另外,在研究期间,城市南部和中部地区的频率和持续时间呈上升趋势。此外,厄尔尼诺-南方涛动和太平洋年代际涛动与持续时间呈正相关,与极端降水的强度和频率呈负相关。因此,应适当调整水管理计划,以减少极端降雨对社区和生态系统的严重影响。

更新日期:2020-10-30
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