In this paper we present a detailed comparison of the prediction error based model selection criteria in circular random effects models. The study is primarily motivated by the need for an understanding of their performance in real life ecological and environmental applications. Prediction errors are based on posterior predictive distributions and the model selection methods are adjusted for the circular manifold. Plug-in estimators of the circular distance parameters are also considered. A Monte Carlo experiment scheme taking the account of various realistic ecological and biological scenarios is designed. We introduced a coefficient that is based on conditional expectations to examine how the deviation from von Mises (vM) distribution, the standard choice in applications, effects the performances. Our results show that the performances of widely used circular predictive model selection criteria mostly depend on the sample size as well as within-sample-correlation. The approaches and selection strategies are then applied to investigate orientational behaviour of Talitrus saltator under the risk of dehydration and direction of wind with respect to associated atmoshperic variables.

在本文中，我们对圆形随机效应模型中基于预测误差的模型选择标准进行了详细的比较。该研究的主要动机是需要了解它们在现实生活中的生态和环境应用中的性能。预测误差基于后验预测分布，并且针对圆形歧管调整了模型选择方法。还考虑了圆形距离参数的插件估计器。设计了考虑各种现实生态和生物情景的蒙特卡洛实验方案。我们引入了基于条件期望的系数，以检查与冯·米塞斯（vM）分布（应用程序中的标准选择）的偏差如何影响性能。我们的结果表明，广泛使用的循环预测模型选择标准的性能主要取决于样本量以及样本内相关性。然后将这些方法和选择策略应用于调查儿童的定向行为。欧洲沙蚤脱水和风向相对于相关atmoshperic变量下的风险。