Spatial synchrony, defined as the correlated fluctuations in abundance of spatially separated populations, can be caused by regional fluctuations in natural and anthropogenic environmental population drivers. Investigations into the geography of synchrony can provide useful insight to inform conservation planning efforts by revealing regions of common population drivers and metapopulation extinction vulnerability. We examined the geography of spatial synchrony, and decadal changes in these patterns, for North American grassland birds, which are experiencing widespread and persistent population declines. We predicted that grassland birds will have increased in spatial synchrony in regions where agricultural intensification, climate change, or interactions between the two have increased. Evaluating over 50 years of North American Breeding Bird Survey abundance information, we found no evidence of an overall increase in synchrony among grassland bird species. However, examining the geography of these changes revealed considerable spatial heterogeneity within species. Averaging across species, we identified clusters of increasing spatial synchrony in the Prairie Pothole and Shortgrass Prairie regions, and one of decreasing spatial synchrony in the eastern U.S. Our approach has the potential to assist continental-scale conservation planning efforts by adding an additional layer of relevant information to species status assessments and spatial prioritization of policy and management actions. We add to a growing literature suggesting global change may result in shifting patterns of spatial synchrony in population dynamics across taxa with broad implications for biodiversity conservation. Impact statement: Visualizing shifts in the spatial synchrony of populations provides a useful addition to the conservation planning toolbox. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

中文翻译：

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绘制北美草原鸟类空间同步变化以告知保护规划

空间同步，定义为空间分离种群丰度的相关波动，可能由自然和人为环境人口驱动因素的区域波动引起。对同步地理的调查可以通过揭示共同种群驱动因素和集合种群灭绝脆弱性的区域，为保护规划工作提供有用的见解。我们研究了北美草原鸟类的空间同步地理和这些模式的年代际变化，这些鸟类正在经历广泛和持续的种群下降。我们预测，在农业集约化、气候变化或两者之间相互作用增加的地区，草原鸟类的空间同步性将增加。评估 50 多年的北美育种鸟类调查丰度信息，我们没有发现草原鸟类之间同步性总体增加的证据。然而，检查这些变化的地理分布揭示了物种内相当大的空间异质性。平均跨物种，我们确定了草原坑洼和短草草原地区空间同步增加的集群，以及美国东部空间同步减少的集群我们的方法有可能通过增加额外的相关层来协助大陆规模的保护规划工作物种状况评估和政策和管理行动的空间优先次序的信息。我们增加了越来越多的文献，表明全球变化可能导致整个分类群的种群动态空间同步模式发生变化，对生物多样性保护具有广泛的影响。影响陈述：可视化种群空间同步的变化为保护规划工具箱提供了有用的补充。本文受版权保护。版权所有。