Antecedent topography is an important aspect of coastal morphology when studying and forecasting coastal change hazards. The uncertainty in morphologic response of storm-impact models and their use in short-term hazard forecasting and decadal forecasting is important to account for when considering a coupled model framework. This study provided a methodology to investigate uncertainty of profile response within the storm impact model XBeach related to varying antecedent topographies. A parameterized island Gaussian fit (PIGF) model generated an idealized baseline profile and a suite of idealized profiles that vary specific characteristics based on collated observed LiDAR data from Dauphin Island, AL, USA. Six synthetic storm scenarios were simulated on each of the idealized profiles with XBeach in both 1- and 2-dimensional setups and analyzed to determine the morphological response and uncertainty related to the varied antecedent topographies. Profile morphologic response tends to scale with storm magnitude but among the varied profiles there is greater uncertainty in profile response to the medium range storm scenarios than to the low and high magnitude storm scenarios. XBeach can be highly sensitive to morphologic thresholds, both antecedent and time-varying, especially with regards to beach slope.

中文翻译：

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XBeach模型中风暴对先前地形的响应敏感性

在研究和预测海岸变化危害时，前期地形是海岸形态的重要方面。在考虑耦合模型框架时，应对风暴影响模型的形态响应的不确定性及其在短期危害预测和年代际预测中的应用非常重要。这项研究提供了一种方法，可以研究暴风影响模型XBeach中与变化的前期地形有关的剖面响应的不确定性。参数化的岛高斯拟合（PIGF）模型基于从美国阿拉巴马州达芬岛（Dauphin Island，AL）收集到的已观察到的LiDAR数据，生成了理想的基线曲线和一组理想曲线，这些曲线可改变特定特征。使用XBeach在1维和2维设置中，在每个理想化剖面上模拟了六个合成风暴情景，并进行了分析，以确定与变化的前期地形有关的形态响应和不确定性。剖面形态响应往往随风暴强度而定，但是在变化的剖面中，对中程风暴情景的剖面响应不确定性要比对高低风暴情景的不确定性更大。XBeach对先前和随时间变化的形态学阈值可能非常敏感，尤其是对于海滩坡度而言。剖面形态响应往往随风暴强度而定，但是在变化的剖面中，对中程风暴情景的剖面响应不确定性要比对高低风暴情景的不确定性更大。XBeach对先前和随时间变化的形态学阈值可能非常敏感，尤其是对于海滩坡度而言。剖面形态响应往往随风暴强度而定，但是在变化的剖面中，对中程风暴情景的剖面响应不确定性要比对高低风暴情景的不确定性更大。XBeach对先前和随时间变化的形态学阈值可能非常敏感，尤其是对于海滩坡度而言。